Match Info

Date: 6 October 2022, Thursday

Location: Bolt Arena (Helsinki)

Referee: Aranovskiy E. (Ukr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	HJK		Ludogorets Razgrad

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.3	2
	3.8	3.2	2.05
	4	3.35	2.05
	4.1	3.35	1.98
	4.14	3.39	2.03
	3.9	3.2	2.05
	4.1	3.3	2.05
	4	3.35	2.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.98 ↑ (3.73)	3.31 ↓ (3.48)	2.03 ↑ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HJK
24%

Draw
28.9%

Ludogorets Razgrad
47.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.4%

27.1%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25%

27.5%

48.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HJK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Ludogorets Razgrad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HJK than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ludogorets Razgrad than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.4%	14.3%	74.3%

HJK - Ludogorets Razgrad Predictions

Users Predictions: 70 users predict this event. HJK will win (votes: 8 - 11.4%). Ludogorets will win (votes: 52 - 74.3%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ludogorets: 64.1% – 84.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

HJK has currently - 0, has a very small chance of 1st (<1%), has a very small chance of 2nd (<1%), has a small chance of 3rd (13%), has a very small chance of round of 16 (<1%), has a very small chance of qtrs (<1%), has a very small chance of semis (<1%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Ludogorets has currently - 3, has a very small chance of 1st (3%), has a chance of 2nd (17%), has a good chance of 3rd (66%), has a very small chance of round of 16 (5%), has a very small chance of qtrs (<1%), has a very small chance of semis (<1%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 33, importance 33, match rating 33. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Ludogorets could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Ludogorets will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in HJK: Martic M. (Leg Injury) Moren V. (Knee Injury) Riski Ro. (Knee Injury) Tenho M. (Red Card)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HJK Helsinki
Finnish Veikkausliiga
02.10.22	HJK - Inter Turku	3:0 ✺
29.09.22	Honka - HJK	3:1 ✺
18.09.22	HJK - SJK	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
15.09.22	Roma - HJK	3:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
11.09.22	Honka - HJK	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLWLW
- Ludogorets Razgrad
Bulgarian Parva Liga
01.10.22	Lokomotiv Sofia - Ludogorets Razgrad	1:0 ✺
18.09.22	Ludogorets Razgrad - Arda Kardzhali	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
15.09.22	Betis - Ludogorets Razgrad	3:2 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
11.09.22	Botev Vratsa - Ludogorets Razgrad	0:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
08.09.22	Ludogorets Razgrad - Roma	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 LTLWW

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