Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 5

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)

Referee: van der Eijk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Albania	SuperSport 4
Argentina	Disney+
Austria	Laola1
Bolivia	ESPN 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 3, ESPN 6
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Colombia	ESPN 3
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Ecuador	ESPN 3
Germany	Laola1, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Israel	Sport 2
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	ESPN
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 3
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 3
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 2
Romania	Prima Sport 4
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Sport TV2
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	Setanta Sports Premium
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 3


	Ajax		PSV Eindhoven

	1	X	2
	2.50	3.80	2.60	Watch
	2.45	4.00	2.50
	2.43	3.75	2.55
	2.57	4.00	2.68
	2.58	3.94	2.43	Watch
	2.50	3.60	2.65
	2.53	3.79	2.61	Watch
	2.46	3.85	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (2.56)	3.84 ↓ (3.95)	2.57 ↑ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 1.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
38.1%

Draw
24.8%

PSV Eindhoven
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

23.9%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

24.6%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

PSV Eindhoven has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for PSV Eindhoven than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	30%	70%

Ajax - PSV Eindhoven Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. PSV will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PSV: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. PSV (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - PSV (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. PSV (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. ter Stegen M. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 30. Bouwman A. 15. Baas Y. 12. Caio Henrique 18. Klaassen D. (C) 24. Mokio J. 8. Brandt J. 23. Berghuis S. 99. Arokodare T. 10. Gloukh O.	32. Kovar M. (G) 8. Dest S. 2. Geertruida L. 4. Obispo A. 17. Mauro Junior (C) 24. Sano K. 31. Fernandez N. 5. Perisic I. 20. Til G. 7. van Bommel R. 9. Pepi R.
Substitutes
4. Amrabat S. 9. Dolberg K. 20. Edvardsen O. 36. Janse D. 6. Kehrer T. 38. Marcos Leonardo 68. Ouazane A. 26. Paes M. (G) 2. Rosa L. 21. Torrents J. 11. Tsygankov V. 5. Wijndal O.	19. Bajraktarevic E. 37. Bouhamdi A. 6. Flamingo R. 3. Gasiorowski Y. 18. Kostic F. 21. Mijnans S. 41. Ngom K. (G) 1. Olij N. (G) 35. Santos A. 10. Wanner P.
Coaches
Michel	Bosz P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, Pepi R. ⚽, van Bommel R. (A),
16', Sano K. 🟨,
23', 1 - 1, Arokodare T. ⚽,
37', Fernandez N. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 2, Geertruida L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Fernandez N. ↓, Wanner P. ↑,
54', Klaassen D. ↓, Marcos Leonardo ↑,
54', Gloukh O. ↓, Amrabat S. ↑,
61', Arokodare T. ↓, Dolberg K. ↑,
61', Berghuis S. ↓, Tsygankov V. ↑,
63', Pepi R. ↓, Mijnans S. ↑,
63', Perisic I. ↓, Bajraktarevic E. ↑,
73', Mauro Junior ↓, Kostic F. ↑,
73', Mokio J. ↓, Ouazane A. ↑,
73', Geertruida L. ↓, Flamingo R. ↑,
74', Kostic F. 🟨,
80', Klaassen D. 🟨,
81', van Bommel R. 🟨,
81', Baas Y. 🟨,
81', Perisic I. 🟨,
84', Geertruida L. 🟨,
84', Bouwman A. ↓, Kehrer T. ↑,
88', Obispo A. ↓, Gasiorowski Y. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 3, Bajraktarevic E. ⚽, Mijnans S. (A),
90+6', Gaaei A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 2.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Ajax: Adingra S. (Foot Injury) Blind D. (Injury) Bounida R. (Injury)

There will not play in PSV: Ouaissa S. (Muscle Injury) Plea A. (Injury) Schouten J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in PSV: Lammers S. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 34:36. (average 1.7:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ajax won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 23:21. (average 1.9:1.8).

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

PSV: 25.74% Ajax: 5.05%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	PSV	8	6	1	1	26:10	16	19
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	22:10	12	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
30.08.26	Telstar - Ajax	0:4 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Ajax - Sion	5:3 ✺
20.08.26	Sion - Ajax	2:4 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
16.08.26	Ajax - Heerenveen	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Shelbourne - Ajax	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWWTT
- PSV Eindhoven
Dutch Eredivisie
30.08.26	Utrecht - PSV Eindhoven	1:6 ✺
23.08.26	PSV Eindhoven - Groningen	5:1 ✺
15.08.26	Excelsior - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 ✺
08.08.26	PSV Eindhoven - Fortuna Sittard	2:2 ✺
Dutch Super Cup
02.08.26	PSV Eindhoven - AZ Alkmaar	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
02.05.26	Ajax - PSV Eindhoven	2:2
21.09.25	PSV Eindhoven - Ajax	2:2
30.03.25	PSV Eindhoven - Ajax	0:2
02.11.24	Ajax - PSV Eindhoven	3:2
03.02.24	Ajax - PSV Eindhoven	1:1
29.10.23	PSV Eindhoven - Ajax	5:2
Dutch KNVB Beker
30.04.23	Ajax - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 penalties

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