Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 8

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
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Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
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Spain	DAZN Espana
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	OneFootball TV


	Ajax		NEC Nijmegen

	1	X	2
	1.36	5.25	7.5	Watch
	1.35	6.00	7.00
	1.35	5.3	7.9
	1.35	5.93	7.78
	1.33	6	7.5	Watch
	1.32	5.85	7.7
	1.37	5.33	8.01	Watch
	1.34	5.6	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↑ (1.29)	5.66 ↓ (5.72)	7.52 ↓ (8.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
70.6%

Draw
16.8%

NEC Nijmegen
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.7%

16.4%

10.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

NEC Nijmegen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	15.4%	7.7%

Ajax - NEC Nijmegen Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Nijmegen will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 54% – 99.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.75 - Ajax (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. ter Stegen M. (G) 2. Rosa L. 6. Kehrer T. 15. Baas Y. (C) 5. Wijndal O. 24. Mokio J. 4. Amrabat S. 8. Brandt J. 11. Tsygankov V. 99. Arokodare T. 10. Gloukh O.	1. Crettaz G. (G) 73. Bras G. 4. Schuurs P. 24. Fonville D. 21. Storm T. 6. Nejasmic D. 20. Lebreton N. 34. Kers K. 9. Chery T. (C) 10. Tadic D. 30. Linssen B.
Substitutes
7. Adingra S. 28. Bissouma Y. 43. Bounida R. 30. Bouwman A. 20. Edvardsen O. 36. Janse D. 18. Klaassen D. 38. Marcos Leonardo 68. Ouazane A. 26. Paes M. (G) 51. Setford C. (G) 21. Torrents J.	5. Bakker M. 99. Bischoff C. 36. Entius F. (G) 8. Hansen-Aaroen I. 66. Kabar A. 22. Kaplan A. 35. Monteiro J. 42. Moslih Y. 12. Polster N. (G) 19. Tahaui A. 11. Willumsson W. T.
Coaches
Michel	Schreuder D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Arokodare T. ⚽, Mokio J. (A),
18', Mokio J. 🟨,
19', 1 - 1, Chery T. (Penalty Awarded),
33', Linssen B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Bras G. 🟨,
60', Gloukh O. ↓, Ouazane A. ↑,
60', Tsygankov V. ↓, Adingra S. ↑,
67', Ouazane A. 🟨,
73', Linssen B. ↓, Bakker M. ↑,
73', Schuurs P. ↓, Kaplan A. ↑,
73', Arokodare T. ↓, Marcos Leonardo ↑,
73', Rosa L. ↓, Bouwman A. ↑,
80', Wijndal O. ↓, Klaassen D. ↑,
82', Kers K. ↓, Monteiro J. ↑,
82', Chery T. ↓, Willumsson W. T. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 5th in the Promotion - Eredivisie Conference League - Playoffs and 11th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 1.

Ajax has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Nijmegen is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

In this match, Ajax enters as the overwhelming favorite.

Confirmed absences for Ajax: Adingra S. (Foot Injury) Blind D. (Back Injury) Bouwman A. (Knock) Dolberg K. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Nijmegen: Crettaz G. (Hamstring Injury) Fonville D. (Ankle Injury) Kaplan A. (Knee Injury) Mor E. (Groin Injury) Nuytinck B. (Ankle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Ajax: Caio Henrique (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Nijmegen: Bischoff C. (Hamstring Injury) Kers K. (Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Ajax has recorded 12 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 52:22 (averaging 2.6:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ajax against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with 28:15 goals (averaging 2.5:1.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	22:10	12	15
11	Nijmegen	8	2	3	3	13:14	-1	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
19.09.26	Ajax - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
15.09.26	Ajax - Willem II	5:1 ✺
12.09.26	Fortuna Sittard - Ajax	1:5 ✺
05.09.26	Ajax - PSV Eindhoven	1:3 ✺
30.08.26	Telstar - Ajax	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TWWLW
- NEC Nijmegen
Dutch Eredivisie
20.09.26	NEC Nijmegen - Go Ahead Eagles	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.09.26	Juventus - NEC Nijmegen	5:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
12.09.26	Cambuur - NEC Nijmegen	3:0 ✺
08.09.26	NEC Nijmegen - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	NEC Nijmegen - Feyenoord	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
21.02.26	Ajax - NEC Nijmegen	1:1
20.12.25	NEC Nijmegen - Ajax	2:2
11.05.25	Ajax - NEC Nijmegen	0:3
01.12.24	NEC Nijmegen - Ajax	1:2
18.02.24	Ajax - NEC Nijmegen	2:2
03.12.23	NEC Nijmegen - Ajax	1:2
05.03.23	Ajax - NEC Nijmegen	1:0

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