Match Info

GERMANY: 2. BUNDESLIGA - ROUND 21

Date: 19 February 2023, Sunday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Canada	Sportsnet
Croatia	SportKlub
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sky Bundesliga, Sky Sport Bundesliga
Greece	Nova Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub, Sport TV
Sweden	Viaplay


	Hamburger SV		Arminia Bielefeld

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.33	6	Watch
	1.53	4.5	5.5	Watch
	1.52	4.35	5.8
	1.56	4.5	5.99
	1.44	4.33	6.5	Watch
	1.52	4.55	5.55	Watch
	1.53	4.6	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.62)	4.45 ↑ (4.18)	5.85 ↑ (5.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
62.5%

Draw
21.3%

Arminia Bielefeld
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.6%

22.7%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

22.1%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Arminia Bielefeld has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arminia Bielefeld than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	5%	20%

Hamburger SV - Arminia Bielefeld Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 15 - 75%). Arminia will win (votes: 4 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hamburg: 56% – 94%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga and 16 in the zone 2. Bundesliga (Relegation)).

Hamburg has the most likely position - 2 (35.56%), has project points - 65, has currently - 41, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of promoted (68%), has a chance of win league (28%).

Arminia has the most likely position - 14 (11.75%), has project points - 39, has currently - 20, has a chance of relegated (19%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 37, importance 54, match rating 45. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hamburg won 2.

Hamburg is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Arminia is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Arminia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Hamburg is absolute favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Hamburg won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Hamburg won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German 2 Bundesliga
11.02.23	Heidenheim - Hamburger SV	3:3 ✺
05.02.23	Hansa Rostock - Hamburger SV	0:2 ✺
29.01.23	Hamburger SV - Eintracht Braunschweig	4:2 ✺
Club Friendly
18.01.23	Hamburger SV - Vancouver Whitecaps	2:0 ✺
13.01.23	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWWWL
- Arminia Bielefeld
German 2 Bundesliga
10.02.23	Arminia Bielefeld - Hansa Rostock	0:1 ✺
04.02.23	Jahn Regensburg - Arminia Bielefeld	1:3 ✺
29.01.23	Arminia Bielefeld - Sandhausen	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
18.01.23	Piast Gliwice - Arminia Bielefeld	Canceled ✺
11.01.23	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Arminia Bielefeld	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWL?L

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
13.08.22	Arminia Bielefeld - Hamburger SV	0:2
24.05.20	Hamburger SV - Arminia Bielefeld	0:0
21.10.19	Arminia Bielefeld - Hamburger SV	1:1
02.02.19	Arminia Bielefeld - Hamburger SV	2:0
27.08.18	Hamburger SV - Arminia Bielefeld	3:0
Club Friendly
18.07.15	Arminia Bielefeld - Hamburger SV	2:0

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