Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 16

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg)

Referee: Gerach T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Freiburg		Hamburger SV

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.5	4.75	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4.4
	1.82	3.55	4.7	Watch
	1.79	3.57	4.65
	1.76	3.67	4.82	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.84	3.57	4.85	Watch
	1.78	3.6	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (1.8)	3.56 ↓ (3.58)	4.68 ↑ (4.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg
53%

Draw
26.7%

Hamburger SV
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

26.5%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

26.2%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	11.7%	5%

Freiburg - Hamburger SV Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Freiburg (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Freiburg will win (50 of 59 users predict this - 84.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.58% – 93.92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Freiburg will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 13 - 86.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Atubolu N. (G) 17. Kubler L. 28. Ginter M. 3. Lienhart P. 30. Gunter C. 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 29. Treu P. 14. Suzuki Y. 32. Grifo V. 9. Holer L.	1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 24. Capaldo N. 44. Vuskovic L. 8. Elfadli D. 18. Jatta B. 6. Lokonga A. S. 21. Remberg N. 28. Muheim M. 20. Vieira F. 19. Downs D. 7. Dompe J.
Substitutes
20. Adamu J. 19. Beste J. 27. Hofler N. 5. Jung A. 33. Makengo J. 31. Matanovic I. 21. Muller F. (G) 6. Osterhage P. 7. Scherhant D.	16. Gocholeishvili G. 40. Hermann H. (G) 11. Konigsdorffer R. 39. Megeed O. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 10. Pherai I. 13. Ramos G. 38. Rossing-Lelesiit A. 25. Torunarigha J.
Coaches
Schuster J.	Polzin M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Elfadli D. 🟨,
39', Treu P. 🟨,
43', Lienhart P. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Lienhart P. ↓, Jung A. ↑,
49', 0 - 1, Vuskovic L. ⚽, Muheim M. (A),
51', Elfadli D. 🟨,
53', 1 - 1, Grifo V. (Penalty Awarded),
57', Dompe J. ↓, Torunarigha J. ↑,
63', Vuskovic L. 🟨,
65', Holer L. ↓, Matanovic I. ↑,
65', Grifo V. ↓, Osterhage P. ↑,
77', Heuer Fernandes D. 🟨,
78', Downs D. ↓, Rossing-Lelesiit A. ↑,
78', Jatta B. ↓, Gocholeishvili G. ↑,
79', Vieira F. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
79', Treu P. ↓, Beste J. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Matanovic I. ⚽, Beste J. (A),
87', Polzin M. 🟨,
90+2', Lokonga A. S. ↓, Konigsdorffer R. ↑,
90+4', Manzambi J. ↓, Hofler N. ↑,
90+7', Osterhage P. 🟨,
90+12', Rossing-Lelesiit A. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 3.

Freiburg is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Hamburg has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Hamburg has had a series of home games.

In this match, Freiburg is the team to beat.

There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness)

There will not play in Hamburg: Balde F. (Illness) Glatzel R. (Thigh Injury) Omari W. (Knee Injury) Philippe R. (Illness) Poulsen Y. (Ankle Injury) Soumahoro A. (Knee Injury) Suhonen A. (Illness)

There are questionable in Freiburg: Dinkci E. (Muscle Injury) Rosenfelder M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:14. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Freiburg won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.1:0.9).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Freiburg: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12:3	9	10
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2:13	-11	3

Last Results with these Odds

Freiburg - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 52.72%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
20.12.25	Wolfsburg - Freiburg	3:4 ✺
14.12.25	Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Freiburg - Red Bull Salzburg	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Heidenheim - Freiburg	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.12.25	Freiburg - Darmstadt	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WTWLW
- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
20.12.25	Hamburger SV - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV	4:1 ✺
07.12.25	Hamburger SV - Werder Bremen	3:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.12.25	Hamburger SV - Holstein Kiel	1:2 penalties ✺
German Bundesliga
30.11.25	Hamburger SV - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

German DFB Pokal
30.10.24	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	2:1
Club Friendly
13.01.23	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	5:2
German DFB Pokal
19.04.22	Hamburger SV - Freiburg	1:3
German Bundesliga
21.04.18	Hamburger SV - Freiburg	1:0
Club Friendly
07.01.18	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	1:1
German Bundesliga
01.12.17	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	0:0
18.02.17	Hamburger SV - Freiburg	2:2

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