Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 16

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Gerach T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	15:30	Tring Sport 5
Argentina	11:30	Disney+
Australia	01:30	beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Belgium	15:30	Play Sports 2
Brazil	11:30	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	16:30	Play Diema Xtra
Canada	09:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	11:30	Disney+
China	22:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	09:30	Disney+
Croatia	15:30	SportKlub 2
Czech Republic	15:30	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	15:30	See, Viaplay
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Georgia	18:30	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	15:30	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports 3
Hong Kong	22:30	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	14:30	Viaplay
Japan	23:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	21:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	22:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	08:30	Sky Sport
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	03:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	15:30	Viaplay
Pakistan	19:30	Tapmad
Peru	09:30	Disney+
Philippines	22:30	beIN Connect
Portugal	14:30	DAZN / App
Romania	16:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2
Russia	17:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	17:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Sport 7
Singapore	22:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	15:30	Sport TV2, Voyo
South Korea	23:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Thailand	21:30	beIN Connect
Turkey	17:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
Uruguay	11:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	10:30	Disney+
Vietnam	21:30	TV 360
International	14:30	Onefootball


	Freiburg		Hamburger SV

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.5	4.75	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4.4
	1.82	3.55	4.7	Watch
	1.79	3.57	4.65
	1.76	3.67	4.82	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.84	3.57	4.85	Watch
	1.78	3.6	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (1.8)	3.56 ↓ (3.58)	4.68 ↑ (4.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg
53%

Draw
26.7%

Hamburger SV
20.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

52.7%

26.5%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

26.2%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	11.7%	5%

Freiburg - Hamburger SV Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Freiburg (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Freiburg will win (50 of 59 users predict this - 84.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.58% – 93.92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Freiburg will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 13 - 86.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Atubolu N. (G) 17. Kubler L. 28. Ginter M. 3. Lienhart P. 30. Gunter C. 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 29. Treu P. 14. Suzuki Y. 32. Grifo V. 9. Holer L.	1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 24. Capaldo N. 44. Vuskovic L. 8. Elfadli D. 18. Jatta B. 6. Lokonga A. S. 21. Remberg N. 28. Muheim M. 20. Vieira F. 19. Downs D. 7. Dompe J.
Substitutes
20. Adamu J. 19. Beste J. 27. Hofler N. 5. Jung A. 33. Makengo J. 31. Matanovic I. 21. Muller F. (G) 6. Osterhage P. 7. Scherhant D.	16. Gocholeishvili G. 40. Hermann H. (G) 11. Konigsdorffer R. 39. Megeed O. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 10. Pherai I. 13. Ramos G. 38. Rossing-Lelesiit A. 25. Torunarigha J.
Coaches
Schuster J.	Polzin M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Elfadli D. 🟨,
39', Treu P. 🟨,
43', Lienhart P. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Lienhart P. ↓, Jung A. ↑,
49', 0 - 1, Vuskovic L. ⚽, Muheim M. (A),
51', Elfadli D. 🟨,
53', 1 - 1, Grifo V. (Penalty Awarded),
57', Dompe J. ↓, Torunarigha J. ↑,
63', Vuskovic L. 🟨,
65', Holer L. ↓, Matanovic I. ↑,
65', Grifo V. ↓, Osterhage P. ↑,
77', Heuer Fernandes D. 🟨,
78', Downs D. ↓, Rossing-Lelesiit A. ↑,
78', Jatta B. ↓, Gocholeishvili G. ↑,
79', Vieira F. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
79', Treu P. ↓, Beste J. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Matanovic I. ⚽, Beste J. (A),
87', Polzin M. 🟨,
90+2', Lokonga A. S. ↓, Konigsdorffer R. ↑,
90+4', Manzambi J. ↓, Hofler N. ↑,
90+7', Osterhage P. 🟨,
90+12', Rossing-Lelesiit A. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 3.

Freiburg is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Hamburg has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Hamburg has had a series of home games.

In this match, Freiburg is the team to beat.

There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness)

There will not play in Hamburg: Balde F. (Illness) Glatzel R. (Thigh Injury) Omari W. (Knee Injury) Philippe R. (Illness) Poulsen Y. (Ankle Injury) Soumahoro A. (Knee Injury) Suhonen A. (Illness)

There are questionable in Freiburg: Dinkci E. (Muscle Injury) Rosenfelder M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:14. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Freiburg won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.1:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Freiburg	7	4	1	2	16:9	7	13
11	Hamburger SV	7	3	0	4	6:16	-10	9

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Freiburg: 0.84%

Last Results with these Odds

Freiburg - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 52.72%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
20.12.25	Wolfsburg - Freiburg	3:4 ✺
14.12.25	Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Freiburg - Red Bull Salzburg	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Heidenheim - Freiburg	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.12.25	Freiburg - Darmstadt	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WTWLW
- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
20.12.25	Hamburger SV - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV	4:1 ✺
07.12.25	Hamburger SV - Werder Bremen	3:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.12.25	Hamburger SV - Holstein Kiel	1:2 penalties ✺
German Bundesliga
30.11.25	Hamburger SV - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

German DFB Pokal
30.10.24	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	2:1
Club Friendly
13.01.23	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	5:2
German DFB Pokal
19.04.22	Hamburger SV - Freiburg	1:3
German Bundesliga
21.04.18	Hamburger SV - Freiburg	1:0
Club Friendly
07.01.18	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	1:1
German Bundesliga
01.12.17	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	0:0
18.02.17	Hamburger SV - Freiburg	2:2

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