Match Info

GERMANY: 2. Bundesliga - Round 24

Date: 2 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Home Deluxe Arena (Paderborn)

Referee: Kampka R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Austria	Sky Go Austria
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hungary	Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
Israel	Sport 2
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	DAZN 2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Nova Sport
Slovakia	Sport TV2, Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX, Tivibu Spor 2
Usa	ESPN+
World	Onefootball


	Paderborn		Hamburger SV

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.3	3.5	2.9
				Watch
	2.42	3.67	2.96
				Watch
	2.3	3.5	2.8	Watch
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.44)	3.56 ↑ (3.5)	2.89 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paderborn
40.5%

Draw
26.7%

Hamburger SV
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

26.7%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

27.4%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paderborn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
43.5%	17.4%	39.1%

Paderborn - Hamburger SV Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Paderborn will win (votes: 9 - 40.9%). Hamburg will win (votes: 9 - 40.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paderborn: 20.4% – 61.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Riemann M. (G) 33. Hoffmeier M. 20. Gotze F. 4. Brackelmann C. 23. Obermair R. (C) 6. Mehlem M. 25. Scheller T. 32. Zehnter A. 7. Bilbija F. 24. Terho C. 29. Ansah I.	1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 2. Mikelbrencis W. 5. Hadzikadunic D. 8. Elfadli D. 28. Muheim M. 17. Karabec A. 23. Meffert J. 14. Reis L. (C) 29. Sahiti E. 27. Selke D. 7. Dompe J.
Substitutes
5. Castaneda S. 17. Curda L. 39. Grimaldi A. 22. Hansen M. 19. Herrmann L. 11. Michel S. 30. Schubert M. (G)	45. Balde F. 30. Hefti S. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 16. Mebude A. 12. Mickel T. (G) 6. Poreba L. 20. Richter M. 4. Schonlau S. 49. Stange O.
Coaches
Kwasniok L.	Polzin M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Bilbija F. ⚽, Terho C. (A),
36', Brackelmann C. ↓, Castaneda S. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Bilbija F. 🟨,
62', Sahiti E. ↓, Balde F. ↑,
63', Karabec A. 🟨,
64', Terho C. 🟨,
71', Terho C. ↓, Grimaldi A. ↑,
71', Bilbija F. ↓, Michel S. ↑,
74', Meffert J. ↓, Richter M. ↑,
74', Karabec A. ↓, Konigsdorffer R. ↑,
76', Scheller T. ↓, Hansen M. ↑,
76', Mehlem M. ↓, Curda L. ↑,
84', 2 - 0, Grimaldi A. ⚽, Ansah I. (A),
89', Reis L. ↓, Stange O. ↑,

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 5 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Paderborn won 2.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Paderborn could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Paderborn: Platte F. (Back Injury)

There will not play in Hamburg: Glatzel R. (Tendon Injury) Jatta B. (Knee Injury) Katterbach N. (Knee Injury) Pherai I. (Muscle Injury) Raab M. (Broken Hand) Soumahoro A. (Muscle Injury)

Last 14 head-to-head matches Paderborn won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 23:25 (average 1.6:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Paderborn won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 11:15 (average 1.6:2.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Paderborn 07
German 2 Bundesliga
22.02.25	Hannover - Paderborn	1:1 ✺
14.02.25	Paderborn - Preußen Münster	2:0 ✺
08.02.25	Ulm 1846 - Paderborn	0:2 ✺
02.02.25	Paderborn - Greuther Fürth	1:2 ✺
26.01.25	Darmstadt - Paderborn	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TWWLW
- Hamburger SV
German 2 Bundesliga
21.02.25	Hamburger SV - Kaiserslautern	3:0 ✺
16.02.25	Jahn Regensburg - Hamburger SV	1:1 ✺
07.02.25	Preußen Münster - Hamburger SV	1:2 ✺
02.02.25	Hamburger SV - Hannover	2:2 ✺
25.01.25	Hertha Berlin - Hamburger SV	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
28.09.24	Hamburger SV - Paderborn	2:2
10.05.24	Paderborn - Hamburger SV	1:0
09.12.23	Hamburger SV - Paderborn	1:2
05.05.23	Hamburger SV - Paderborn	2:2
30.10.22	Paderborn - Hamburger SV	2:3
02.04.22	Hamburger SV - Paderborn	1:2
22.10.21	Paderborn - Hamburger SV	1:2

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