Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 7

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Home Deluxe Arena (Paderborn) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Petersen M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena, Startimes Sports Focus
Argentina	10:30	Disney+
Australia	00:30	beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Brazil	10:30	Canal GOAT
Canada	09:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	10:30	Disney+
China	21:30	Migu
Colombia	08:30	Disney+
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Finland	16:30	Viaplay
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9
Germany	15:30	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports 6
Hong Kong	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	13:30	Viaplay
India	19:00	ZEE5
Japan	22:30	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	07:30	FOX One
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	02:30	beIN Connect
Norway	15:30	Viaplay
Peru	08:30	Disney+
Philippines	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	14:30	DAZN / App
Russia	16:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	16:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Sport 9
Singapore	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
South Korea	22:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Thailand	20:30	AIS PLAY
Uruguay	10:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	Peacock
Venezuela	09:30	Disney+
International	13:30	OneFootball TV


	Paderborn		Hamburger SV

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.7	3.1	Watch
	2.35	3.60	2.85
	2.18	3.6	3.05	Watch
	2.26	3.75	3.25
	2.23	3.73	3.03	Watch
	2.2	3.6	3.15
	2.21	3.72	3.12	Watch
	2.14	3.85	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.37)	3.69 ↓ (3.72)	3.09 ↑ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Paderborn
43.1%

Draw
25.9%

Hamburger SV
31%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.1%

25.6%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

25.5%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paderborn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.4%	15.8%	36.8%

Paderborn - Hamburger SV Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Paderborn will win (votes: 9 - 47.4%). Hamburg will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paderborn: 24.9% – 69.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Paderborn (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.49) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
15. Noll N. (G) 21. ter Horst J. 25. Scheller T. 22. Hansen M. 17. Curda L. (C) 28. Ulrich L. 5. Castaneda S. 40. Vidovic G. 23. Obermair R. 30. Marino S. 27. Tigges S.	1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 43. Nandja S. 33. Bornauw S. 17. Omari W. 7. El Ouahdi Z. 5. Adeline M. 4. Nadir B. 28. Muheim M. 3. Wolfe D. 15. Poulsen Y. (C) 20. Vieira F.
Substitutes
6. Baack T. 20. Gotze F. 11. Michel S. 2. Muller R. 9. Philippe R. 18. Pieringer M. 1. Schubert M. (G) 3. Sticker J. 38. Zeitler D.	22. Amoako K. 48. Bissi Mouelle J. 11. Gronbaek A. 37. Lemke L. 6. Lokonga A. S. 9. Moffi T. 38. Rossing-Lelesiit A. 19. Stange O. 12. Tangvik S. (G)
Coaches
Kettemann R.	Polzin M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Vieira F. ↓, Stange O. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Poulsen Y. ↓, Moffi T. ↑,
46', Vidovic G. ↓, Baack T. ↑,
54', Nandja S. 🟨,
58', ter Horst J. 🟨,
62', ter Horst J. ↓, Gotze F. ↑,
63', Tigges S. ↓, Pieringer M. ↑,
71', Ulrich L. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
71', Nadir B. ↓, Gronbaek A. ↑,
71', Muheim M. ↓, Lokonga A. S. ↑,
79', Marino S. ↓, Michel S. ↑,
87', Lokonga A. S. 🟨,
88', 1 - 0, Philippe R. ⚽, Gotze F. (A),
89', Polzin M. 🟨,
90', Stange O. ↓, Rossing-Lelesiit A. ↑,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 16th in the Bundesliga (Relegation) and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paderborn won 3.

In recent outings, Paderborn has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Hamburg is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Paderborn holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Paderborn: Awortwie-Grant N. (Knee Injury) Batista Meier O. (Ankle Injury) Gayret T. (Knee Injury) Hoffmeier M. (Muscle Injury) Klaas S. (Muscle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Hamburg: Remberg N. (Knee Injury) Vuskovic M. (Doping).

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Paderborn has recorded 6 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:25 (averaging 1.7:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Paderborn against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 13:15 goals (averaging 1.6:1.9 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Hamburger SV	7	3	0	4	6:16	-10	9
13	Paderborn	7	2	2	3	6:9	-3	8

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Paderborn: 0.12%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Paderborn 07
German Bundesliga
17.10.26	Werder Bremen - Paderborn	2:2 ✺
10.10.26	Paderborn - Stuttgart	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
30.09.26	DC United - Paderborn	0:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.09.26	Paderborn - Hoffenheim	3:1 ✺
12.09.26	Borussia Dortmund - Paderborn	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 TLWWL
- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
17.10.26	Hamburger SV - Stuttgart	1:0 ✺
10.10.26	Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
04.10.26	Hamburger SV - Copenhagen	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
19.09.26	Hamburger SV - Köln	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
02.03.25	Paderborn - Hamburger SV	2:0
28.09.24	Hamburger SV - Paderborn	2:2
10.05.24	Paderborn - Hamburger SV	1:0
09.12.23	Hamburger SV - Paderborn	1:2
05.05.23	Hamburger SV - Paderborn	2:2
30.10.22	Paderborn - Hamburger SV	2:3
02.04.22	Hamburger SV - Paderborn	1:2

Upcoming Matches