Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 15

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hamburger SV		Eintracht Frankfurt

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.5	2.88	Watch
	2.32	3.45	3.05	Watch
	2.59	3.65	2.75
	2.46	3.46	2.84	Watch
	2.4	3.25	2.8	Watch
	2.45	3.56	2.93	Watch
	2.5	3.33	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.63)	3.46 ↓ (3.69)	2.87 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
39.1%

Draw
27.6%

Eintracht Frankfurt
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

25.7%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

26.1%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Eintracht Frankfurt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Eintracht Frankfurt than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Eintracht Frankfurt could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Hamburger SV - Eintracht Frankfurt Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 4 - 20%). Eintracht will win (votes: 8 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Eintracht: 18.5% – 61.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB - Eintracht (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Eintracht (2.06) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Eintracht Frankfurt will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Eintracht (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 24. Capaldo N. (C) 44. Vuskovic L. 8. Elfadli D. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 6. Lokonga A. S. 21. Remberg N. 28. Muheim M. 14. Philippe R. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 45. Balde F.	23. Zetterer M. (G) 34. Collins N. 4. Koch R. (C) 5. Amenda A. 13. Kristensen R. 16. Larsson H. 18. Dahoud M. 21. Brown N. 20. Doan R. 19. Bahoya J. 7. Knauff A.
Substitutes
16. Gocholeishvili G. 18. Jatta B. 23. Meffert J. 26. Peretz D. (G) 10. Pherai I. 13. Ramos G. 29. Sahiti E. 22. Soumahoro A. 20. Vieira F.	2. Baum E. 24. Buta 45. Dills M. 41. Doumbia F. 6. Hojlund O. 40. Kaua Santos (G) 32. Ngankam J. 53. Staff A. 42. Uzun C. Y.
Coaches
Polzin M.	Toppmoller D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', 1 - 0, Lokonga A. S. ⚽,
26', 1 - 1, Larsson H. ⚽, Brown N. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bahoya J. ↓, Hojlund O. ↑,
60', Mikelbrencis W. ↓, Jatta B. ↑,
61', Elfadli D. ↓, Soumahoro A. ↑,
70', Balde F. ↓, Vieira F. ↑,
71', Kristensen R. ↓, Baum E. ↑,
71', Larsson H. ↓, Uzun C. Y. ↑,
82', Knauff A. ↓, Ngankam J. ↑,
84', Baum E. ↓, Buta ↑,
87', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Pherai I. ↑,
88', Philippe R. ↓, Gocholeishvili G. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 0.

Hamburg has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Eintracht's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Eintracht may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Hamburg: Dompe J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Glatzel R. (Injury) Omari W. (Knee Injury) Poulsen Y. (Ankle Injury) Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Eintracht: Batshuayi M. (Foot Injury) Chaibi F. (International duty) Chandler T. (Ankle Injury) Skhiri E. (International duty) Theate A. (Yellow Cards) Wahi E. (Illness)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Ramos G. (Injury) Vieira F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Eintracht: Burkardt J. (Calf Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 11:22. (average 0.8:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:10. (average 0.5:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Hamburger SV - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 36.11%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Eintracht Frankfurt - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 38.15%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
13.12.25	Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV	4:1 ✺
07.12.25	Hamburger SV - Werder Bremen	3:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.12.25	Hamburger SV - Holstein Kiel	1:2 penalties ✺
German Bundesliga
30.11.25	Hamburger SV - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Augsburg - Hamburger SV	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWLWL
- Eintracht Frankfurt
German Bundesliga
13.12.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Augsburg	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.12.25	Barcelona - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	RB Leipzig - Eintracht Frankfurt	6:0 ✺
30.11.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Wolfsburg	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.11.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Atalanta	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
05.05.18	Eintracht Frankfurt - Hamburger SV	3:0
12.12.17	Hamburger SV - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:2
18.03.17	Eintracht Frankfurt - Hamburger SV	0:0
21.10.16	Hamburger SV - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:3
19.02.16	Eintracht Frankfurt - Hamburger SV	0:0
19.09.15	Hamburger SV - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:0
28.02.15	Eintracht Frankfurt - Hamburger SV	2:1

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