Match Info

GERMANY: 2. Bundesliga - Round 25

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Exner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, Fox Sports
Asia	TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Sportklub 5
Bulgaria	Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 5
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga, Sky Sport Top event, Sport 1, WOW
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North-macedonia	Sportklub 5
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Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1, Prima Sport PPV 1
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Slovenia	Sport TV1
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Top Event, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
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Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+, Onefootball


	Hamburger SV		Fortuna Düsseldorf

	1	X	2
	1.7	4	4.33	Watch
	1.77	4	4.1
	1.71	3.95	4.3	Watch
	1.73	4.15	4.9
	1.71	4.09	4.56	Watch
	1.73	4	4.2	Watch
	1.7	4.06	4.58	Watch
	1.71	3.95	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.77)	4.03 ↑ (3.95)	4.41 ↑ (4.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
55%

Draw
23.5%

Fortuna Düsseldorf
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

23.7%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

23.5%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Fortuna Düsseldorf has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortuna Düsseldorf than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	18.7%	6.2%

Hamburger SV - Fortuna Düsseldorf Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 12 - 75%). Fortuna will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hamburg: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 2. Mikelbrencis W. 5. Hadzikadunic D. 8. Elfadli D. 28. Muheim M. 17. Karabec A. 23. Meffert J. 14. Reis L. (C) 29. Sahiti E. 27. Selke D. 7. Dompe J.	33. Kastenmeier F. (G) 15. Oberdorf T. 3. Hoffmann A. (C) 20. Siebert J. 5. Heyer M. 25. Zimmermann M. 34. Gavory N. 11. Kwarteng M. 8. Johannesson I. 24. Kownacki D. 7. Pejcinovic D.
Substitutes
45. Balde F. 30. Hefti S. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 16. Mebude A. 12. Mickel T. (G) 6. Poreba L. 20. Richter M. 4. Schonlau S. 49. Stange O.	23. Appelkamp S. 44. Boller J. 19. Iyoha E. 46. Latza D. 18. Niemiec J. 22. Schmidt D. 26. Schock F. (G) 10. van Brederode M. 9. Vermeij V.
Coaches
Polzin M.	Thioune D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Muheim M. ⚽,
8', Kastenmeier F. 🟨,
18', 1 - 1, Kownacki D. ⚽, Kwarteng M. (A),
40', 2 - 1, Selke D. ⚽, Dompe J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', Kwarteng M. ↓, Appelkamp S. ↑,
58', Siebert J. 🟨,
66', 3 - 1, Karabec A. ⚽,
68', Selke D. 🟨,
68', Hoffmann A. 🟨,
76', Selke D. ↓, Konigsdorffer R. ↑,
76', Hoffmann A. ↓, Iyoha E. ↑,
76', Mikelbrencis W. ↓, Hefti S. ↑,
76', Pejcinovic D. ↓, Vermeij V. ↑,
85', Sahiti E. ↓, Balde F. ↑,
85', Karabec A. ↓, Richter M. ↑,
86', Kownacki D. ↓, van Brederode M. ↑,
86', Gavory N. ↓, Niemiec J. ↑,
90+3', Reis L. ↓, Stange O. ↑,
90+4', 4 - 1, Stange O. ⚽, Hefti S. (A),

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hamburg won 3.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Hamburg could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Hamburg is a favorite.

There will not play in Hamburg: Jatta B. (Knee Injury) Katterbach N. (Knee Injury) Raab M. (Broken Hand) Soumahoro A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Fortuna: Iyoha E. (Muscle Injury) Jastrzembski D. (Shoulder Injury) Kwasigroch R. (Knee Injury) Rossmann T. (Injury) Sobottka M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Glatzel R. (Tendon Injury) Pherai I. (Muscle Injury)

Last 11 head-to-head matches Hamburg won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14:10 (average 1.3:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Hamburg won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:3 (average 1.6:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German 2 Bundesliga
02.03.25	Paderborn - Hamburger SV	2:0 ✺
21.02.25	Hamburger SV - Kaiserslautern	3:0 ✺
16.02.25	Jahn Regensburg - Hamburger SV	1:1 ✺
07.02.25	Preußen Münster - Hamburger SV	1:2 ✺
02.02.25	Hamburger SV - Hannover	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWTWT
- Fortuna Düsseldorf
German 2 Bundesliga
28.02.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Greuther Fürth	1:2 ✺
23.02.25	Köln - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:1 ✺
15.02.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Hertha Berlin	2:1 ✺
09.02.25	Hannover - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Ulm 1846	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
06.10.24	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Hamburger SV	0:3
08.03.24	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Hamburger SV	2:0
29.09.23	Hamburger SV - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:0
31.03.23	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Hamburger SV	2:2
17.09.22	Hamburger SV - Fortuna Düsseldorf	2:0
19.03.22	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Hamburger SV	1:1
16.10.21	Hamburger SV - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:1

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