Match Info

GERMANY: 2. Bundesliga - Round 11

Date: 3 November 2024, Sunday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Fox Sports
Asia	TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1, DAZN 3, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 3
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport 2
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Montenegro	Sportklub 3
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, SportKlub 3
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 3
Poland	Viaplay
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Sportbox.ru
Singapore	beIN Sport 1, beIN Sports 3, StarHub TV+
Slovakia	Sport TV2
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4, Tivibu Spor 2
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+, Flow Sports 1
World	Disney+, Onefootball


	Hamburger SV		Nürnberg

	1	X	2
	1.62	4.5	4.5	Watch
	1.63	4.6	4.4
	1.6	4.5	4.5	Watch
	1.65	4.7	4.67
	1.65	4.73	4.57	Watch
	1.53	4.5	5
	1.65	4.45	4.53	Watch
	1.6	4.5	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.53)	4.56 ↓ (4.7)	4.58 ↓ (5.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
58.6%

Draw
20.8%

Nürnberg
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.7%

20.1%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.3%

19.9%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Nürnberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nürnberg than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	8.3%	4.2%

Hamburger SV - Nürnberg Predictions

Users Predictions: Hamburger SV will win (20 of 23 users predict this - 86.96%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.2% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 33. Katterbach N. 24. Perrin L. 3. Heyer M. 28. Muheim M. 17. Karabec A. 14. Reis L. (C) 8. Elfadli D. 6. Poreba L. 7. Dompe J. 27. Selke D.	1. Reichert J. (G) 4. Jeltsch F. 31. Knoche R. (C) 44. Karafiat O. 2. Villadsen O. 20. Jander C. 17. Castrop J. 3. Soares D. T. 10. Justvan J. 30. Emreli M. 9. Tzimas S.
Substitutes
45. Balde F. 18. Jatta B. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 21. Oztunali L. 10. Pherai I. 19. Raab M. (G) 20. Richter M. 49. Stange O.	8. Duman T. 6. Flick F. 14. Goller B. 43. Hofmann J. 18. Lubach R. 26. Mathenia C. (G) 36. Schleimer L. 33. Seidel N. 21. Yilmaz B.
Coaches
Baumgart S.	Klose M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Elfadli D. ⚽, Karabec A. (A),
31', Reis L. ↓, Richter M. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
63', 1 - 1, Emreli M. ⚽, Knoche R. (A),
63', Karabec A. ↓, Pherai I. ↑,
64', Dompe J. ↓, Balde F. ↑,
65', Emreli M. 🟨,
67', Soares D. T. 🟨,
68', Emreli M. ↓, Schleimer L. ↑,
71', Soares D. T. ↓, Yilmaz B. ↑,
71', Castrop J. ↓, Lubach R. ↑,
75', Katterbach N. ↓, Mikelbrencis W. ↑,
75', Selke D. ↓, Konigsdorffer R. ↑,
81', Tzimas S. 🟨,
84', Tzimas S. ↓, Goller B. ↑,
85', Mikelbrencis W. 🟨,

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 5 and 8).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hamburg won 4.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

In this match Hamburg is a favorite.

There will not play in Hamburg: Glatzel R. (Thigh Injury) Hadzikadunic D. (Muscle Injury) Hefti S. (Back Injury)

There will not play in Nürnberg: Forkel D. (Knee Injury) Handwerker T. (Knee Injury) Serra J. (Hip Injury)

Last 17 head-to-head matches Hamburg won 11 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 40:14 (average 2.4:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Hamburg won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 21:8 (average 2.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German DFB Pokal
30.10.24	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	2:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
26.10.24	Elversberg - Hamburger SV	4:2 ✺
20.10.24	Hamburger SV - Magdeburg	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
10.10.24	Hamburger SV - AGF Aarhus	1:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
06.10.24	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Hamburger SV	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLWTW
- 1. FC Nürnberg
German DFB Pokal
30.10.24	Hoffenheim - Nürnberg	2:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
25.10.24	Nürnberg - Jahn Regensburg	8:3 ✺
20.10.24	Greuther Fürth - Nürnberg	0:4 ✺
05.10.24	Nürnberg - Preußen Münster	3:2 ✺
29.09.24	Hannover - Nürnberg	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
19.05.24	Hamburger SV - Nürnberg	4:1
16.12.23	Nürnberg - Hamburger SV	0:2
04.03.23	Hamburger SV - Nürnberg	3:0
27.08.22	Nürnberg - Hamburger SV	0:2
05.03.22	Nürnberg - Hamburger SV	2:1
German DFB Pokal
26.10.21	Nürnberg - Hamburger SV	1:2 penalties
German 2 Bundesliga
26.09.21	Hamburger SV - Nürnberg	2:2

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