Match Info

FA Trophy - 1/32-finals

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday


	Harborough Town		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.65	1.95
	3.28	3.75	1.98
	3.24	4.02	1.95
	3.25	3.4	2
	3.3	3.56	1.94
	3.2	3.6	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↓ (6.1)	3.66 ↓ (4.58)	1.96 ↑ (1.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Harborough Town
28.2%

Draw
25%

Carlisle United
46.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.9%

19.8%

65.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.9%

19.8%

65.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Harborough Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Harborough Town's performance.

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carlisle United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Harborough Town than the current prediction. (-13.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Harborough Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+18.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlisle United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Harborough Town - Carlisle United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, Murray S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', 0 - 2, Linney R. ⚽,
69', 1 - 2, Dolman L. ⚽,

Preview

Harborough has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Carlisle has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Harborough may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Carlisle is a strong favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Harborough Town
English Southern League Central Division
29.11.25	Barwell - Harborough Town	1:1 ✺
25.11.25	Harborough Town - Redditch United	2:0 ✺
22.11.25	Worcester City - Harborough Town	1:2 ✺
18.11.25	Quorn - Harborough Town	0:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Harborough Town - Enfield Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TWWWW
- Carlisle United
English National League
10.12.25	Carlisle United - Woking	1:3 ✺
English FA Cup
07.12.25	Blackpool - Carlisle United	4:1 ✺
English National League
29.11.25	Carlisle United - Tamworth	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Boston United - Carlisle United	1:2 ✺
15.11.25	Carlisle United - Eastleigh	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWWT

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