Match Info

FA Cup - Qualification - Final

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Carlisle United		Tamworth

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.90	4.33
	1.65	4.33	4.60
	1.52	4.10	4.60
	1.59	4.32	4.37
	1.69	4.2	4.17	Watch
	1.57	4.25	3.90
	1.67	4.03	4.48	Watch
	1.60	3.95	4.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↑ (1.54)	4.14 ↑ (4.03)	4.37 ↓ (5.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
56.8%

Draw
22.2%

Tamworth
21%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59.3%

22.6%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

22.2%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Tamworth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tamworth than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Carlisle United - Tamworth Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Linney R. ⚽,
45+1', 2 - 0, Linney R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', 2 - 1, Calder R. ⚽,

Preview

Replayed if draw.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Tamworth may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Carlisle for this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Carlisle has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:3 (averaging 1.5:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Carlisle against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:1 goals.

Last Results with these Odds

Carlisle United - the odds 1.54 are the expected chance of winning is 59.28%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English National League
10.10.26	Carlisle United - Kidderminster Harriers	0:0 ✺
03.10.26	Aldershot Town - Carlisle United	1:3 ✺
English National League North
29.09.26	Fylde - Carlisle United	0:2 ✺
English National League
26.09.26	Carlisle United - Woking	2:5 ✺
19.09.26	Eastleigh - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWWLL
- Tamworth
English National League
10.10.26	Tamworth - Barrow	1:2 ✺
English National League Cup
06.10.26	Tamworth - Leeds United U21	1:0 ✺
English National League
03.10.26	Hartlepool United - Tamworth	0:1 ✺
30.09.26	Tamworth - Sutton United	2:0 ✺
26.09.26	Aldershot Town - Tamworth	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League
14.03.26	Tamworth - Carlisle United	2:1
29.11.25	Carlisle United - Tamworth	2:1

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