Match Info

National League - Round 21

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Carlisle United		Tamworth

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.33	5.5
	1.44	4.55	5.9
	1.49	4.58	5.86
	1.53	4.22	5.42	Watch
	1.5	4.47	5.67
	1.5	4.33	5.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.53)	4.41 ↑ (4.22)	5.68 ↑ (5.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
62.6%

Draw
21.1%

Tamworth
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.8%

22%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63%

21.2%

16.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Tamworth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tamworth than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Carlisle United - Tamworth Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Breeze G. (G) 22. Williams J. 6. Hayden A. 5. Feeney M. (C) 3. Harper C. 37. Macadam H. 20. Gilliead A. 11. Luamba J. 38. Conn-Clarke C. 10. Linney R. 9. Kelly G.	1. Singh J. (G) 15. Donkor K. 5. Digie K. 12. Rye J. 3. Cockerill-Mollett C. 8. Milnes B. 6. Bates A. 20. Roberts T. 38. Ponticelli J. 31. Maher R. 39. Creaney D.
Substitutes
7. Ajiboye D. 29. Armstrong L. 2. Davies A. 18. Ellis J. 25. Lewis H. (G) 16. Wearne S. 8. Whelan C.	2. Curley M. 9. Duku I. 26. Hollis H. 27. Lynch O. 14. Mols S. 13. Rachel D. (G) 4. Tonks T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', Feeney M. 🟨,
21', Roberts T. 🟨,
25', 1 - 0, Kelly G. ⚽,
31', Digie K. 🟨,
39', 1 - 1, Ponticelli J. ⚽, Maher R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Cockerill-Mollett C. ↓, Curley M. ↑,
52', Milnes B. (Pen),
64', Luamba J. ↓, Ajiboye D. ↑,
71', Creaney D. ↓, Lynch O. ↑,
71', Milnes B. ↓, Tonks T. ↑,
75', Gilliead A. ↓, Armstrong L. ↑,
79', 2 - 1, Kelly G. ⚽, Linney R. (A),
83', Rye J. ↓, Hollis H. ↑,
85', Ajiboye D. 🟨,
87', Roberts T. ↓, Duku I. ↑,
90+1', Conn-Clarke C. ↓, Ellis J. ↑,
90+4', Donkor K. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 11).

Carlisle has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Tamworth has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tamworth may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Carlisle is the undisputed favorite.

We predict that Carlisle will win today's game, with odds of 1.45.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English National League
22.11.25	Boston United - Carlisle United	1:2 ✺
15.11.25	Carlisle United - Eastleigh	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Southend United - Carlisle United	1:2 ✺
04.11.25	Carlisle United - Halifax Town	2:0 ✺
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Reading - Carlisle United	2:3 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WTWWW
- Tamworth
English National League Cup
25.11.25	Tamworth - Blackburn Rovers U21	3:0 ✺
English National League
22.11.25	Tamworth - Rochdale	1:2 ✺
15.11.25	Boreham Wood - Tamworth	1:2 ✺
11.11.25	Forest Green Rovers - Tamworth	4:2 ✺
08.11.25	Tamworth - Woking	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WLWLL

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