Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 35

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Laagri kunstmurustaadion (Laagri)

Referee: Kaivoja K. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Soccernet TV


	Harju JK Laagri		Tallinna Kalev

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.25	4.7	Watch
	1.71	4.23	3.94	Watch
	1.61	4.1	4.26	Watch
	1.73	4.25	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.66)	4.21 ↑ (4)	4.13 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Harju JK Laagri
55.8%

Draw
21.9%

Tallinna Kalev
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.6%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

18.7%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Harju JK Laagri has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Tallinna Kalev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Harju JK Laagri than the current prediction. (-10.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Harju JK Laagri that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tallinna Kalev than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tallinna Kalev could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Harju JK Laagri - Tallinna Kalev Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vainula J. (G) 6. Bergman A. 41. Kajari E. 24. Laur K. 23. Rudenko Daniil 17. Kelement M. 8. Ussa 5. Kartau I. 13. Sillamaa R. 20. Piht K. 7. Reimaa R. (C)	99. Lepp S. (G) 6. Palutaja H. 44. Dubackic D. 45. Bamijoko A. 37. Sheviakov D. 21. Petrunin D. 50. Sambe F. 24. Sukunda Z. (C) 8. Laasner K. 10. Jurisoo T. 9. Usta T.
Substitutes
97. Baturins I. (G) 21. Camara N. 47. Ennuste K. 4. Jarve A. 45. Kangur S. 67. Karimu M. 22. Kesa M. 11. Kose A. 66. Roomussaar K. 10. Sikk A.	23. Ernits R. 2. Famuditimi H. 26. Ilves R. 4. Jallow M. 12. Purje A. 18. Sal-Al-Saller D. 22. Sotsugov D. 20. Udebuluzor M. 98. Vetkal M. (G)
Coaches
Nuuma L.	Barengrub A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', Petrunin D. 🟥,
36', 1 - 0, Piht K. ⚽, Laur K. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
56', 2 - 0, Piht K. ⚽, Sillamaa R. (A),
61', 3 - 0, Piht K. (Pen),
66', Sheviakov D. ↓, Jallow M. ↑,
66', Dubackic D. ↓, Sal-Al-Saller D. ↑,
66', Usta T. ↓, Purje A. ↑,
66', Sukunda Z. ↓, Sotsugov D. ↑,
69', Kartau I. ↓, Karimu M. ↑,
69', Kelement M. ↓, Roomussaar K. ↑,
69', Rudenko Daniil ↓, Sikk A. ↑,
69', Barengrub A. 🟨,
75', Karimu M. 🟨,
77', Ussa 🟨,
79', Jurisoo T. ↓, Ilves R. ↑,
80', 3 - 1, Ilves R. ⚽, Laasner K. (A),
81', Sillamaa R. ↓, Kangur S. ↑,
89', Ussa ↓, Kesa M. ↑,
90+5', 4 - 1, Sikk A. ⚽, Piht K. (A),

Preview

Kalev is Relegated to Esiliiga

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Harju won 2.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Kalev may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Harju has had a series of home games.

In this match, Harju is the team to beat.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Harju won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Harju won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Harju JK Laagri
Estonian Cup
30.10.25	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme United	0:1 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
25.10.25	Harju JK Laagri - Narva Trans	1:0 ✺
22.10.25	Harju JK Laagri - Tammeka	2:2 ✺
19.10.25	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme Kalju	1:3 ✺
04.10.25	Harju JK Laagri - Flora Tallinn	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWTLL
- Tallinna Kalev
Estonian Cup
30.10.25	Elva - Tallinna Kalev	1:2 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
25.10.25	Tammeka - Tallinna Kalev	5:2 ✺
22.10.25	Tallinna Kalev - Nõmme Kalju	0:2 ✺
18.10.25	Flora Tallinn - Tallinna Kalev	6:0 ✺
04.10.25	Tallinna Kalev - Narva Trans	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
13.07.25	Tallinna Kalev - Harju JK Laagri	3:1
03.05.25	Tallinna Kalev - Harju JK Laagri	1:3
09.03.25	Harju JK Laagri - Tallinna Kalev	2:0
31.10.23	Harju JK Laagri - Tallinna Kalev	0:2
16.09.23	Tallinna Kalev - Harju JK Laagri	2:1
28.06.23	Tallinna Kalev - Harju JK Laagri	1:1
15.03.23	Harju JK Laagri - Tallinna Kalev	0:2

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