Match Info

League Two - Round 11

Date: 6 October 2025, Monday

Location: Exercise Stadium (Harrogate)

Referee: Mather S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Harrogate Town		Crewe Alexandra

	1	X	2
	3	3.7	2.1	Watch
	3.2	3.5	2.1
	3.2	3.45	2.12	Watch
	3.17	3.73	2.17
	1.82	3.68	3.95	Watch
	3.12	3.38	2.19	Watch
	3.05	3.5	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↓ (3.2)	3.56 ↑ (3.25)	2.38 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Harrogate Town
32.7%

Draw
27%

Crewe Alexandra
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

28.6%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

28.7%

42.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Harrogate Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Crewe Alexandra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Harrogate Town than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.5%	35%	42.5%

Harrogate Town - Crewe Alexandra Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Harrogate will win (votes: 9 - 23.7%). Crewe will win (votes: 17 - 44.7%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 31.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Crewe: 28.9% – 60.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Crewe (votes: 6 - 50%). Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Harrogate (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Harrogate (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Crewe (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Tie (votes: 6 - 46.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Belshaw J. (G) 6. Burrell W. 15. O'Connor A. 20. Faulkner B. 17. Sutton L. 8. Morris B. 4. Evans J. 11. Duke-McKenna S. 22. Smith R. 21. Taylor E. 18. Muldoon J.	1. Booth T. (G) 2. Billington L. 16. Golding J. 5. Demetriou M. (C) 3. Hutchinson R. 6. Sanders M. H. 8. Thomas C. 26. O'Reilly T. 17. Holicek M. 20. Agius C. 24. March J.
Substitutes
2. Asare Z. 10. Bennett M. 5. Bradbury T. 27. Fox B. 14. McAleny C. 9. McCoulsky S. 1. Oxley M. (G)	18. Connolly J. 14. Finney C. 7. Lankester J. 19. Lunt O. 4. Mingi J. J. 36. Tezgel E. 13. Waller S. (G)
Coaches
Weaver S.	Bell L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Muldoon J. ⚽, Smith R. (A),
29', 1 - 1, Hutchinson R. ⚽, O'Reilly T. (A),
41', Holicek M. ↓, Lankester J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Thomas C. ↓, Lunt O. ↑,
61', Taylor E. ↓, McAleny C. ↑,
62', Sutton L. ↓, Fox B. ↑,
70', Muldoon J. ↓, Bennett M. ↑,
73', Morris B. 🟨,
75', O'Reilly T. ↓, Tezgel E. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Sanders M. H. ⚽,
90', Burrell W. 🟨,
90+2', Bennett M. ↓, Cursons T. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 16 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Harrogate won 0.

Harrogate is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Crewe has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Crewe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Crewe might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Harrogate: Gibson L. (Inactive) Hill T. (Injury) Thomson G. (Injury)

There will not play in Crewe: Tabiner J. (Knee Injury) Tracey S. (Broken Leg)

There are questionable in Harrogate: Bennett M. (Injury) Cass L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Crewe: Bogle O. (Injury) Powell J. (Groin Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Harrogate won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:11. (average 0.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Harrogate won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Crewe Alexandra - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.29%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Harrogate Town
English EFL Trophy
30.09.25	Harrogate Town - Huddersfield Town	1:0 ✺
English League Two
27.09.25	Gillingham - Harrogate Town	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Harrogate Town - Shrewsbury Town	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Swindon Town - Harrogate Town	3:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
09.09.25	Mansfield Town - Harrogate Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 31 WWWLW
- Crewe Alexandra
English League Two
27.09.25	Crewe Alexandra - Notts County	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Barrow - Crewe Alexandra	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Crewe Alexandra - Barnet	1:2 ✺
06.09.25	Colchester United - Crewe Alexandra	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.09.25	Crewe Alexandra - Chesterfield	7:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
01.02.25	Harrogate Town - Crewe Alexandra	1:1
English EFL Trophy
08.10.24	Crewe Alexandra - Harrogate Town	1:0
English League Two
21.09.24	Crewe Alexandra - Harrogate Town	3:0
17.02.24	Crewe Alexandra - Harrogate Town	0:0
28.10.23	Harrogate Town - Crewe Alexandra	0:1
18.02.23	Harrogate Town - Crewe Alexandra	2:2
06.08.22	Crewe Alexandra - Harrogate Town	3:0

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