Match Info

League Two - Round 25

Date: 3 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: Exercise Stadium (Harrogate)

Referee: Mulhall S. (Eng)


	Harrogate Town		Swindon Town

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.8	1.62	Watch
	4.7	3.95	1.65
	4.85	4.02	1.73
	4.59	3.98	1.67	Watch
	4.4	3.7	1.7
	4.72	3.82	1.67	Watch
	4.75	3.8	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.68 ↑ (3.73)	3.87 ↑ (3.34)	1.68 ↓ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Harrogate Town
20%

Draw
24.2%

Swindon Town
55.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.6%

27.4%

48%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.1%

26.9%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Harrogate Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Swindon Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Harrogate Town than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Swindon Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	25%	62.5%

Harrogate Town - Swindon Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Harrogate will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Swindon will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Swindon Town will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Gray H. (G) 24. Cass L. 31. Heffernan C. 30. Gibson L. 3. Slater J. 8. Morris B. 4. Evans J. 37. Marsh A. 22. Smith R. 23. Sutton E. 12. Acquah E.	1. Ripley C. (G) 33. McGregor J. 5. Wright W. 8. Clarke O. (C) 3. Mabete F. 34. Kirkman B. 29. Olakigbe M. 18. Kilkenny G. 44. Oldaker D. 23. Drinan A. 28. Palmer O.
Substitutes
. Brenan T. 14. McAleny C. 18. Muldoon J. 15. O'Connor A. 21. Taylor E. 7. Thomson G. . Waller S. (G)	6. Ball J. 25. Borland A. 24. Holman F. 7. Nichols T. 11. Scanlon J. 19. Snowdon J. 12. Ward L. (G)
Coaches
Weaver S.	Holloway I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Clarke O. 🟨,
39', Morris B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Marsh A. ↓, Taylor E. ↑,
46', Wright W. ↓, Ball J. ↑,
57', Mabete F. ↓, Nichols T. ↑,
57', Palmer O. ↓, Holman F. ↑,
57', Oldaker D. ↓, Scanlon J. ↑,
70', Ball J. ↓, Snowdon J. ↑,
81', Sutton E. ↓, Muldoon J. ↑,
84', 0 - 1, Drinan A. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Harrogate won 1.

Harrogate has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Swindon is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Swindon is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Harrogate: Duke-McKenna S. (Injury) Faulkner B. (Inactive) Gibson L. (Injury) Hill T. (Injury) Taylor E. (Inactive)

There will not play in Swindon: Butterworth D. (Inactive) Clarke O. (Suspended) Glatzel P. (Inactive) Minturn H. (Groin Injury) Smith H. (Knee Injury) Wilson-Brown T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Harrogate: Bradbury T. (Injury) Sutton L. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Swindon: Bodin B. (Inactive) Delaney R. (Inactive) Snowdon J. (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Harrogate won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Harrogate won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.5:1.3).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Swindon: 1.7%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Swindon	9	3	2	4	9:13	-4	11

Last Results with these Odds

Harrogate Town - the odds 3.73 are the expected chance of winning is 24.6%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Swindon Town - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 47.97%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Harrogate Town
English League Two
31.01.26	Crawley Town - Harrogate Town	2:0 ✺
27.01.26	Harrogate Town - Fleetwood Town	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Harrogate Town - Gillingham	0:3 ✺
17.01.26	Shrewsbury Town - Harrogate Town	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
13.01.26	Stockport County - Harrogate Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Swindon Town
English League Two
31.01.26	Swindon Town - Barrow	3:1 ✺
27.01.26	Notts County - Swindon Town	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Bromley - Swindon Town	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
20.01.26	Salford City - Swindon Town	3:2 ✺
English League Two
17.01.26	Swindon Town - Salford City	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
13.09.25	Swindon Town - Harrogate Town	3:1
15.02.25	Harrogate Town - Swindon Town	1:0
05.10.24	Swindon Town - Harrogate Town	0:0
02.03.24	Swindon Town - Harrogate Town	1:1
18.11.23	Harrogate Town - Swindon Town	1:1
25.02.23	Swindon Town - Harrogate Town	3:0
30.07.22	Harrogate Town - Swindon Town	3:0

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