Match Info

National League - Round 11

Date: 30 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: The Lamb Ground (Tamworth)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	DAZN National League


	Tamworth		Sutton United

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.75	2.30
	2.55	3.40	2.30
	2.43	3.55	2.55	Watch
	2.92	3.50	2.46
	2.31	3.69	2.73	Watch
	2.80	3.35	2.40
	2.61	3.83	2.35	Watch
	2.65	3.60	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.26)	3.58 ↓ (3.59)	2.43 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tamworth
35.8%

Draw
26%

Sutton United
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

25.8%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

24.6%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tamworth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tamworth's form might have worsened.

Sutton United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sutton United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tamworth than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tamworth, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sutton United than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sutton United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Tamworth - Sutton United Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Tamworth will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Sutton will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.53) (votes: 94%) ⭐ Best Value.

O/U 2.5 - over (1.65) (votes: 85%) ⭐ Best Value.

AH -0 - Sutton Utd (1.85) (votes: 82%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Lovett R. (G) 3. Handley T. 5. Parkes T. (C) 12. Rye J. 16. Calder R. 4. Kurtaran T. 29. Carson H. 19. McGlinchey T. 14. Dyson O. 30. Roberts M. 10. Donnelly K.	1. Brits S. (G) 12. Urpens D. 5. Nightingale W. 3. Topalloj B. 27. Brookes B. 19. Knight J. 8. Taylor J. (C) 6. Bell C. 7. Osadebe E. 9. Babalola T. 18. Ogbonna D.
Substitutes
7. Acquaye B. 18. Cullinane-Liburd J. 23. Hutchinson J. 28. Kelly G. 2. Lyttle T. 41. Silva V. 1. Singh J. (G)	26. Amartey B. 10. Carter C. 2. Donkor K. 11. Folarin S. 13. Haigh Ch. (G) 14. Mussa O. 16. Njoku B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Kurtaran T. 🟨,
39', Taylor J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Taylor J. ↓, Njoku B. ↑,
46', Parkes T. ↓, Cullinane-Liburd J. ↑,
47', 1 - 0, Donnelly K. ⚽,
49', Cullinane-Liburd J. 🟨,
52', 2 - 0, Osadebe E. (Own goal),
62', Knight J. ↓, Amartey B. ↑,
63', Carson H. ↓, Acquaye B. ↑,
65', Babalola T. ↓, Mussa O. ↑,
65', Bell C. ↓, Folarin S. ↑,
80', Kurtaran T. ↓, Kelly G. ↑,
81', Osadebe E. 🟨,
87', Roberts M. 🟨,
89', Roberts M. ↓, Hutchinson J. ↑,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 22nd in the Relegation and 10th).

Recent results have been tough for Tamworth (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Sutton have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Recently, Sutton has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Tamworth has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:6 (averaging 1.2:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tamworth against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 1:2 goals (averaging 0.5:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Sutton	13	5	3	5	14:18	-4	18
18	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	21:30	-9	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tamworth
English National League
26.09.26	Aldershot Town - Tamworth	5:1 ✺
19.09.26	Tamworth - Wealdstone	2:1 ✺
English National League North
15.09.26	Southend United - Tamworth	3:1 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Harrogate Town - Tamworth	3:1 ✺
English National League Cup
09.09.26	Tamworth - Middlesbrough U21	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LWLLL
- Sutton United
English National League
26.09.26	Sutton United - Forest Green Rovers	3:3 ✺
19.09.26	Halifax Town - Sutton United	1:1 ✺
English National League North
15.09.26	Sutton United - Eastleigh	2:1 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Sutton United - Scunthorpe United	0:2 ✺
English National League Cup
08.09.26	Sutton United - Birmingham City U21	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League
24.01.26	Tamworth - Sutton United	0:1
13.09.25	Sutton United - Tamworth	2:3
English FA Trophy
07.01.25	Sutton United - Tamworth	1:0
English National League
21.12.24	Sutton United - Tamworth	1:2
10.08.24	Tamworth - Sutton United	1:1

Tamworth - Sutton United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide