Match Info

National League - Round 11

Date: 29 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	DAZN
Argentina	DAZN
Austria	DAZN
Bolivia	DAZN
Brazil	DAZN Brasil
Bulgaria	DAZN
Canada	DAZN Canada
Croatia	DAZN
Cyprus	DAZN
Czech-republic	DAZN
Denmark	DAZN
Ecuador	DAZN
Finland	DAZN
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	DAZN
Hungary	DAZN
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Latvia	DAZN
Lithuania	DAZN
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-macedonia	DAZN
Paraguay	DAZN
Poland	DAZN
Portugal	DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	DAZN
Slovenia	DAZN
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	DAZN
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	DAZN
Turkey	DAZN Turkiye
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	DAZN
Usa	DAZN USA
Venezuela	DAZN
World	DAZN National League


	Hartlepool United		Harrogate Town

	1	X	2
	3.50	3.50	1.85
	3.60	3.40	1.83
	3.75	3.75	1.81
	3.60	4.03	1.90
	3.47	3.79	1.93	Watch
	3.55	3.95	1.88
	3.66	4.16	1.86
	3.55	3.60	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.59 ↑ (2.75)	3.77 ↑ (3.3)	1.87 ↓ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
25.9%

Draw
24.6%

Harrogate Town
49.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

27.9%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

27.7%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hartlepool United's form might have worsened.

Harrogate Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Harrogate Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hartlepool United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Harrogate Town than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Harrogate Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	12.5%	50%

Hartlepool United - Harrogate Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Hartlepool will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Harrogate will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Harrogate: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Hartlepool (votes: 1 - 100%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.62) (votes: 89%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
53. Thompson M. (G) 21. Thornton C. 4. Hunter J. (C) 6. McNally R. 3. John C. 12. Eccleston N. 14. Sheron N. 8. Miley J. 42. Deeming C. 10. Harris W. 9. Hugill J.	34. Hutchinson L. (G) 26. Horton G. 16. Dreyer S. 4. Baptiste A. 24. Cass L. 11. McGowan W. 14. Williams M. 3. Bristow E. 15. Hobson B. (C) 23. Dolaghan B. 17. Hmami J.
Substitutes
2. Benn J. 30. Bondo T. 11. Charman L. 32. Fisher N. (G) 7. Ilunga B. 17. Nolan J. 19. Popov C.	6. Burrell W. 19. Craig M. 9. McCoulsky S. 35. McGuckin C. 1. Oxley M. (G) 21. Taylor E. 7. Thomson G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', John C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Thornton C. ↓, Bondo T. ↑,
46', Eccleston N. ↓, Benn J. ↑,
54', 0 - 1, Hobson B. ⚽, McGowan W. (A),
57', Dolaghan B. 🟨,
61', Hugill J. ↓, Charman L. ↑,
61', Deeming C. ↓, Nolan J. ↑,
66', Hmami J. 🟨,
70', McGowan W. ↓, Thomson G. ↑,
71', Dolaghan B. ↓, McCoulsky S. ↑,
71', Hmami J. ↓, Taylor E. ↑,
71', John C. ↓, Ilunga B. ↑,
82', Bondo T. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hartlepool won 2.

Hartlepool is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Harrogate has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Harrogate holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Hartlepool has recorded 4 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:24 (averaging 1.8:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Hartlepool against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 14:11 goals (averaging 2:1.6 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Hartlepool United - the odds 2.75 are the expected chance of winning is 33.46%, but this team recently wins 21% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English National League
26.09.26	Scunthorpe United - Hartlepool United	4:1 ✺
19.09.26	Hartlepool United - Worthing	1:3 ✺
English National League North
16.09.26	Altrincham - Hartlepool United	2:1 ✺
11.09.26	Kidderminster Harriers - Hartlepool United	2:0 ✺
English National League
05.09.26	Hartlepool United - Woking	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLLW
- Harrogate Town
English National League
26.09.26	Harrogate Town - Eastleigh	4:1 ✺
19.09.26	Boreham Wood - Harrogate Town	4:1 ✺
English National League North
15.09.26	Harrogate Town - Fylde	1:2 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Harrogate Town - Tamworth	3:1 ✺
05.09.26	Scunthorpe United - Harrogate Town	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
28.07.23	Hartlepool United - Harrogate Town	1:2
English League Two
01.01.23	Hartlepool United - Harrogate Town	3:3
English FA Cup
26.11.22	Hartlepool United - Harrogate Town	3:1
English League Two
15.10.22	Harrogate Town - Hartlepool United	2:1
English EFL Trophy
30.08.22	Hartlepool United - Harrogate Town	2:0
English League Two
05.03.22	Harrogate Town - Hartlepool United	1:2
23.10.21	Hartlepool United - Harrogate Town	3:2

Upcoming Matches