Match Info

1. Lig - Round 18

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Mersin Stadyumu (Mersin)

Referee: Gokcen O. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Hatayspor		Serik Belediyespor

	1	X	2
	6.25	4.33	1.4	Watch
	5	4	1.51
	6.31	4.68	1.39
	5.7	4.37	1.49
	5.51	4.8	1.47	Watch
	6	4.6	1.44
	6.51	4.51	1.44	Watch
	5.66	4.5	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.87 ↑ (4.58)	4.47 ↑ (4)	1.45 ↓ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hatayspor
15.7%

Draw
20.6%

Serik Belediyespor
63.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.3%

23.2%

56.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.6%

22.4%

58.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hatayspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Serik Belediyespor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Serik Belediyespor's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hatayspor than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Serik Belediyespor than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Serik Belediyespor, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Hatayspor - Serik Belediyespor Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Hatayspor (1.63) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -1 - Serik Belediyespor (2.28) (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

1X2, 1st Half - Serik Belediyespor (1.91) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Users Predictions: Serik Belediyespor will win (21 of 24 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.27% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Serik Belediyespor will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Hatayspor (votes: 2 - 9.1%). Serik Belediyespor (votes: 20 - 90.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Saricali D. (G) 33. Aydemir E. 15. Yilmaz B. 95. Buz Y. A. 13. Aksoy E. 98. Aydin S. M. 20. Yildiz A. 18. Durmushan U. 6. Sarka B. 30. Guler E. 9. Aksoy D.	34. Ersu E. (G) 22. Ceylan B. 4. Martynov A. 33. Akkan G. 35. Isciler B. 3. Terzi E. 79. Altiparmak G. 11. Karadeniz G. 19. Cetin S. 70. Ozcan S. 9. Sadygov I.
Substitutes
66. Abdulkadir A. 78. Daduk E. (G) 97. Sen M. 77. Uzel B.	23. Gunes E. (G) 27. Karakaya B. (G) 2. Tashkyn S. 17. Yukseloglu H.
Coaches
Alas G.	Pasali S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Sarka B. ⚽,
26', Yilmaz B. 🟨,
28', Isciler B. 🟨,
36', 1 - 1, Ozcan S. ⚽, Martynov A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Sadygov I. ↓, Tashkyn S. ↑,
85', Yildiz A. ↓, Uzel B. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 10).

Hatayspor has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Serik Belediyespor has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Hatayspor may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Serik Belediyespor is the team to beat.

There will not play in Hatayspor: Demir C. (Suspended) Matur O. (Red Card) Temel S. (Suspended)

There will not play in Serik Belediyespor: Asan B. (Suspended) Celenk E. (Suspended) Dilli S. (Suspended) Kok D. (Inactive) Sen K. (Yellow Cards) Silva M. (Yellow Cards) Tunali M. (Suspended) Yucedag E. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Hatayspor: Saglam G. (Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hatayspor
Turkish First League
15.12.25	Sakaryaspor - Hatayspor	3:0 ✺
08.12.25	Hatayspor - Sarıyer	0:3 ✺
01.12.25	Adana Demirspor - Hatayspor	3:3 ✺
22.11.25	Hatayspor - Pendikspor	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Amed SK - Hatayspor	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLL
- Serik Belediyespor
Turkish First League
13.12.25	Serik Belediyespor - Manisa FK	0:1 ✺
06.12.25	Serik Belediyespor - Keçiörengücü	1:3 ✺
29.11.25	Vanspor - Serik Belediyespor	0:1 ✺
24.11.25	Serik Belediyespor - Sarıyer	3:0 ✺
08.11.25	Sakaryaspor - Serik Belediyespor	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 LLWWW

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