Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 24

Date: 1 January 2025, Wednesday


	Merthyr Town		Gloucester City

	1	X	2
	1.78	3.8	3.3
	1.84	3.9	3.35
	1.84	4.21	3.52
	1.73	4	3.4
	1.77	4	3.52
	1.84	3.9	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.86)	3.97 ↑ (3.88)	3.41 ↑ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
50.5%

Draw
22.9%

Gloucester City
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

23.5%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

22.1%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Gloucester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gloucester City than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Merthyr Town - Gloucester City Predictions

Users Predictions: Merthyr Town will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Richards-Everton B. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
70', 1 - 1, Rees R. ⚽,
88', 1 - 2, Hanks J. ⚽,
90', 2 - 2, Smerdon N. ⚽,

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Southern League Premier South (Play Offs: )).

Merthyr in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Gloucester is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Merthyr could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Merthyr have a series of guest games.

In this match Merthyr is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Merthyr to win the game is with odds 1.76.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:2 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
28.12.24	Merthyr Town - Walton & Hersham	5:2 ✺
26.12.24	Hungerford Town - Merthyr Town	1:3 ✺
14.12.24	Poole Town - Merthyr Town	1:6 ✺
10.12.24	Taunton Town - Merthyr Town	2:3 ✺
30.11.24	Bracknell Town - Merthyr Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WWWWW
- Gloucester City
English Southern League South Division
28.12.24	Wimborne Town - Gloucester City	1:1 ✺
26.12.24	Gloucester City - Swindon Supermarine	3:1 ✺
21.12.24	Plymouth Parkway - Gloucester City	6:0 ✺
14.12.24	Gloucester City - Chertsey Town	3:1 ✺
30.11.24	Gloucester City - Poole Town	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
26.08.24	Gloucester City - Merthyr Town	2:1
English FA Cup
01.10.22	Gloucester City - Merthyr Town	0:1

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