Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 32

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday


	Hednesford Town		Lancaster City

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.65	4.55
	1.79	3.56	3.84
	1.65	4.1	4.53	Watch
	1.6	3.74	4.78
	1.9	3.5	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.88)	3.71 ↑ (3.7)	4.26 ↑ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hednesford Town
53.7%

Draw
24.8%

Lancaster City
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

25.1%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

25.3%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hednesford Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Lancaster City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hednesford Town than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Hednesford Town - Lancaster City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Gibson M. ⚽,
24', 2 - 0, Gibson M. ⚽,
31', 3 - 0, Sterling-James O. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: ) and 8).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, Lancaster has had a series of home games.

In this match, Hednesford is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hednesford won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Hednesford won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lancaster	12	5	1	6	16:24	-8	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hednesford Town
English NPL Premier Division
14.02.26	Hyde United - Hednesford Town	5:0 ✺
10.02.26	Hednesford Town - Hebburn Town	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Hednesford Town - Whitby Town	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Hednesford Town	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Hednesford Town - Leek Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LTTTW
- Lancaster City
English NPL Premier Division
14.02.26	Lancaster City - Leek Town	2:1 ✺
10.02.26	Lancaster City - Rushall Olympic	0:1 ✺
07.02.26	Guiseley - Lancaster City	0:0 ✺
03.02.26	Lancaster City - Hyde United	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Lancaster City - Ashton United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
18.10.25	Lancaster City - Hednesford Town	0:0
23.03.19	Lancaster City - Hednesford Town	2:2
16.10.18	Hednesford Town - Lancaster City	0:1
30.12.17	Lancaster City - Hednesford Town	0:1
26.08.17	Hednesford Town - Lancaster City	1:1

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