Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 41

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday


	Stockton Town		Lancaster City

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.4	3.35
	1.9	3.68	3.39
	1.93	3.82	3.46	Watch
	1.91	3.3	3.25
	1.91	3.52	3.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.06)	3.54 ↓ (3.73)	3.37 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stockton Town
47.4%

Draw
25.6%

Lancaster City
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

24.9%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

25.6%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stockton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Lancaster City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stockton Town than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Stockton Town - Lancaster City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', 1 - 0, Sweet M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', 1 - 1, Lawson D. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 and 7).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Lancaster may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Stockton Town could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Stockton Town won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Stockton Town won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lancaster	12	5	1	6	16:24	-8	16
16	Stockton	12	3	2	7	15:22	-7	11

Last Results with these Odds

Lancaster City - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 29.98%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stockton Town
English NPL Premier Division
11.04.26	Stockton Town - Rushall Olympic	2:4 ✺
06.04.26	Hebburn Town - Stockton Town	1:0 ✺
03.04.26	Stockton Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:0 ✺
28.03.26	Hyde United - Stockton Town	3:0 ✺
21.03.26	Stockton Town - Warrington Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLWLW
- Lancaster City
English NPL Premier Division
11.04.26	Lancaster City - Gainsborough Trinity	3:0 ✺
06.04.26	Bamber Bridge - Lancaster City	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Lancaster City - Morpeth Town	3:0 ✺
28.03.26	Hebburn Town - Lancaster City	4:1 ✺
21.03.26	Lancaster City - Cleethorpes Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
22.11.25	Lancaster City - Stockton Town	1:2
15.01.25	Stockton Town - Lancaster City	1:0
10.09.24	Lancaster City - Stockton Town	2:1

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