Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 40

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday


	Hednesford Town		Morpeth Town

	1	X	2
	1.49	4.05	5.15
	1.44	4.51	5.74
	1.53	4.52	5.18	Watch
	1.44	4	5
	1.5	4.37	5.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.53)	4.29 ↑ (4.18)	5.36 ↓ (5.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hednesford Town
61.7%

Draw
21.3%

Morpeth Town
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.7%

22.2%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.4%

21.6%

16.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hednesford Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

The chances for Morpeth Town have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hednesford Town than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Morpeth Town than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Hednesford Town - Morpeth Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Sterling-James O. ⚽,
25', 2 - 0, Sterling-James O. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
69', 3 - 0, Gibson M. ⚽,
83', 4 - 0, Sterling-James O. ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Hednesford is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Morpeth has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Hednesford is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Hednesford won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hednesford Town
English NPL Premier Division
06.04.26	United of Manchester - Hednesford Town	1:2 ✺
03.04.26	Hednesford Town - Prescot Cables	3:0 ✺
28.03.26	Workington - Hednesford Town	3:0 ✺
21.03.26	Stocksbridge Park Steels - Hednesford Town	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Hednesford Town - Guiseley	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWLTW
- Morpeth Town
English NPL Premier Division
06.04.26	Morpeth Town - Whitby Town	3:0 ✺
03.04.26	Lancaster City - Morpeth Town	3:0 ✺
28.03.26	Morpeth Town - Leek Town	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Bamber Bridge - Morpeth Town	0:2 ✺
14.03.26	Morpeth Town - Hyde United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
23.08.25	Morpeth Town - Hednesford Town	1:0

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