Match Info

Bundesliga - Relegation - Final

Date: 22 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Voith-Arena (Heidenheim)

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Heidenheim		Elversberg

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.5	3	Watch
	2.2	3.5	3.2
	2.35	3.6	3	Watch
	2.31	3.53	3.13
	2.31	3.47	3.04	Watch
	2.2	3.4	3.1	Watch
	2.3	3.54	3.07	Watch
	2.35	3.6	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.06)	3.52 ↓ (3.7)	3.07 ↓ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heidenheim
41.8%

Draw
27.1%

Elversberg
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

25.6%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

27.3%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heidenheim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Elversberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heidenheim than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Heidenheim, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elversberg than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.8%	3%	18.2%

Heidenheim - Elversberg Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - Heidenheim (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Elversberg (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Heidenheim (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Heidenheim will win (24 of 30 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.69% – 94.31%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Heidenheim will win (13 of 17 users predict this - 76.47%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Heidenheim (votes: 15 - 75%). Elversberg (votes: 2 - 10%). Tie (votes: 3 - 15%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Muller K. (G) 2. Busch M. 6. Mainka P. (C) 4. Siersleben T. 23. Traore O. H. 3. Schoppner J. 13. Kratzig F. 39. Dorsch N. 21. Beck A. 18. Pieringer M. 17. Honsak M.	20. Kristof N. (G) 2. Baum E. 31. Rohr M. 3. Le Joncour F. 33. Neubauer M. 8. Sahin S. 6. Fellhauer R. (C) 25. Petkov L. 30. Damar M. 29. Zimmerschied T. 10. Asllani F.
Substitutes
31. Conteh S. 40. Feller F. (G) 19. Fohrenbach J. 5. Gimber B. 20. Kerber L. 16. Niehues J. 8. Scienza L. 10. Wanner P. 12. Zivzivadze B.	28. Boss T. (G) 11. Durholtz L. 22. Ebnoutalib Y. 7. Feil M. 27. Gerezgiher F. 1. Lehmann F. (G) 17. Schmahl F. 24. Schnellbacher L. 23. Sickinger C.
Coaches
Schmidt F.	Steffen H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
18', 0 - 1, Petkov L. ⚽, Asllani F. (A),
26', Beck A. 🟨,
42', 0 - 2, Asllani F. ⚽, Zimmerschied T. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Beck A. ↓, Wanner P. ↑,
46', Pieringer M. ↓, Zivzivadze B. ↑,
46', Dorsch N. ↓, Scienza L. ↑,
62', 1 - 2, Siersleben T. ⚽,
64', 2 - 2, Honsak M. ⚽,
76', Honsak M. ↓, Conteh S. ↑,
78', Fellhauer R. ↓, Sickinger C. ↑,
78', Zimmerschied T. ↓, Schnellbacher L. ↑,
86', Petkov L. ↓, Schmahl F. ↑,
89', Asllani F. ↓, Ebnoutalib Y. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

In recent matches, Heidenheim has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Elversberg is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Heidenheim might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Elversberg: Dragon P. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Heidenheim: Janes L. (Muscle Injury) Kratzig F. (Illness) Negele C. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Heidenheim won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Heidenheim won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
German Bundesliga
17.05.25	Heidenheim - Werder Bremen	1:4 ✺
10.05.25	Union Berlin - Heidenheim	0:3 ✺
02.05.25	Heidenheim - Bochum	0:0 ✺
25.04.25	Stuttgart - Heidenheim	0:1 ✺
19.04.25	Heidenheim - Bayern Munich	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 LWTWL
- SV Elversberg
German 2 Bundesliga
18.05.25	Schalke 04 - Elversberg	1:2 ✺
10.05.25	Elversberg - Eintracht Braunschweig	3:0 ✺
04.05.25	Nürnberg - Elversberg	1:3 ✺
26.04.25	Paderborn - Elversberg	1:1 ✺
19.04.25	Elversberg - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
19.04.14	Elversberg - Heidenheim	1:1
09.11.13	Heidenheim - Elversberg	1:0

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