Match Info

Date: 23 October 2022, Sunday

Location: Voith-Arena (Heidenheim)

Referee: Braun R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sky Bundesliga, Sky Sport Bundesliga, Sky Sport Top event
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Serbia	SportKlub
Sweden	Viaplay


	Heidenheim		Greuther Fürth

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.4	3.25	Watch
	2.1	3.5	3.25	Watch
	2.16	3.5	3.15
	2.2	3.35	3.2
	2.28	3.42	3.37
	2.2	3.25	3.2	Watch
	2.2	3.4	3.2	Watch
	2.23	3.4	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.12)	3.4 ↓ (3.49)	3.23 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heidenheim
43%

Draw
27.8%

Greuther Fürth
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

26.8%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

26.4%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heidenheim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

The chances for Greuther Fürth have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heidenheim than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Greuther Fürth than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.3%	13.3%	13.3%

Heidenheim - Greuther Fürth Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Heidenheim will win (votes: 22 - 73.3%). Fürth will win (votes: 4 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Heidenheim: 57.5% – 89.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 5 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga).

Heidenheim has the most likely position - 5 (10.66%), has project points - 52, has currently - 20, has a very small chance of relegated (1%), has a small chance of promoted (13%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

Fürth has the most likely position - 17 (11.06%), has project points - 39, has currently - 10, has a chance of relegated (25%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 32, importance 35, match rating 33. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Heidenheim won 2.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Fürth could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Heidenheim will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Heidenheim won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 13-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Heidenheim won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
German DFB Pokal
19.10.22	Union Berlin - Heidenheim	2:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
16.10.22	Holstein Kiel - Heidenheim	3:1 ✺
09.10.22	Heidenheim - Hannover	2:1 ✺
01.10.22	St. Pauli - Heidenheim	0:0 ✺
18.09.22	Heidenheim - Kaiserslautern	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLWTT
- Greuther Fürth
German 2 Bundesliga
14.10.22	Greuther Fürth - Hansa Rostock	2:2 ✺
07.10.22	Jahn Regensburg - Greuther Fürth	2:2 ✺
01.10.22	Greuther Fürth - Sandhausen	1:1 ✺
18.09.22	Greuther Fürth - Paderborn	2:1 ✺
11.09.22	Magdeburg - Greuther Fürth	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTTWL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
03.04.21	Heidenheim - Greuther Fürth	0:1
05.12.20	Greuther Fürth - Heidenheim	0:1
16.06.20	Greuther Fürth - Heidenheim	0:0
01.12.19	Heidenheim - Greuther Fürth	1:0
22.02.19	Greuther Fürth - Heidenheim	0:0
23.09.18	Heidenheim - Greuther Fürth	2:0
13.05.18	Heidenheim - Greuther Fürth	1:1

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