Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 14

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Storks S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball


	St. Pauli		Heidenheim

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.5	4.5	Watch
	1.82	3.55	4.45	Watch
	1.86	3.59	4.8
	1.83	3.56	4.53	Watch
	1.85	3.25	4.2	Watch
	1.92	3.6	4.62	Watch
	1.81	3.6	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 (1.85)	3.52 ↓ (3.58)	4.51 ↑ (4.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
51.7%

Draw
27.1%

Heidenheim
21.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

26.5%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

26.1%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Heidenheim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heidenheim than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52%	24%	24%

St. Pauli - Heidenheim Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 13 - 52%). Heidenheim will win (votes: 6 - 24%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 24%).
Confidence interval (95%) for St. Pauli: 32.4% – 71.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Heidenheim (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Heidenheim (3.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Heidenheim (4.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Heidenheim (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. 3. Mets K. 11. Pyrka A. 16. Fujita J. 6. Sands J. 7. Irvine J. (C) 23. Oppie L. 19. Kaars M. 28. Pereira Lage M.	41. Ramaj D. (G) 27. Keller T. 6. Mainka P. (C) 4. Siersleben T. 2. Busch M. 16. Niehues J. 3. Schoppner J. 19. Fohrenbach J. 21. Beck A. 22. Ibrahimovic A. 18. Pieringer M.
Substitutes
20. Ahlstrand E. 9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 26. Jones R.J. 24. Metcalfe C. 21. Ritzka L. 2. Saliakas M. 10. Sinani D. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	30. Dorsch N. 5. Gimber B. 17. Honsak M. 29. Kaufmann M. 20. Kerber L. 28. Kolle A. 1. Muller K. (G) 9. Schimmer S. 23. Traore O. H.
Coaches
Blessin A.	Schmidt F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', Sands J. 🟨,
35', 1 - 0, Kaars M. ⚽, Fujita J. (A),
42', Schoppner J. 🟨,
45', Smith E. 🟥,
45+3', Blessin A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Dzwigala A. ↑,
46', Schoppner J. ↓, Schimmer S. ↑,
46', Keller T. ↓, Traore O. H. ↑,
53', 2 - 0, Kaars M. ⚽, Fujita J. (A),
64', 2 - 1, Pieringer M. ⚽, Schimmer S. (A),
64', Siersleben T. ↓, Honsak M. ↑,
64', Beck A. ↓, Kaufmann M. ↑,
69', Pyrka A. 🟨,
73', Kaufmann M. 🟨,
76', Kaars M. ↓, Jones R.J. ↑,
78', Niehues J. ↓, Dorsch N. ↑,
87', Pieringer M. 🟨,
90+6', Jones R.J. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 3.

Recent form of St. Pauli has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Heidenheim has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Heidenheim may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, St. Pauli has had a series of away games.

St. Pauli is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Heidenheim: Feller F. (Knee Injury) Paqarada L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in St. Pauli: Hountondji A. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Heidenheim: Zivzivadze B. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 24:26. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Köln - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
02.12.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.11.25	Bayern Munich - St. Pauli	3:1 ✺
23.11.25	St. Pauli - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	Freiburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TWLLL
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Heidenheim - Freiburg	2:1 ✺
29.11.25	Union Berlin - Heidenheim	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	Heidenheim - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:3 ✺
08.11.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Heidenheim	6:0 ✺
01.11.25	Heidenheim - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
18.01.25	Heidenheim - St. Pauli	0:2
25.08.24	St. Pauli - Heidenheim	0:2
German 2 Bundesliga
08.04.23	Heidenheim - St. Pauli	0:1
01.10.22	St. Pauli - Heidenheim	0:0
18.03.22	St. Pauli - Heidenheim	1:0
16.10.21	Heidenheim - St. Pauli	2:4
31.01.21	Heidenheim - St. Pauli	3:4

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