Match Info

GERMANY: Bundesliga - Round 9

Date: 2 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel)

Referee: Willenborg F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Holstein Kiel		Heidenheim

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.5	2.8	Watch
	2.4	3.4	2.85
	2.45	3.5	2.9	Watch
	2.47	3.55	3
	2.48	3.47	2.96	Watch
	2.45	3.4	2.8	Watch
	2.48	3.62	2.98	Watch
	2.45	3.5	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.6)	3.49 ↓ (3.62)	2.9 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holstein Kiel
39.3%

Draw
27.5%

Heidenheim
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

26.5%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

27.6%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holstein Kiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Heidenheim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heidenheim than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.2%	27.6%	55.2%

Holstein Kiel - Heidenheim Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 5 - 17.9%). Heidenheim will win (votes: 16 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Heidenheim: 38.8% – 75.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weiner T. (G) 6. Ivezic M. 4. Erras P. 14. Geschwill M. 17. Becker T. (C) 24. Knudsen M. 27. Puchacz T. 37. Gigovic A. 22. Remberg N. 19. Harres P. 7. Skrzybski S.	1. Muller K. (G) 6. Mainka P. (C) 5. Gimber B. 4. Siersleben T. 23. Traore O. H. 3. Schoppner J. 39. Dorsch N. 19. Fohrenbach J. 10. Wanner P. 18. Pieringer M. 8. Scienza L.
Substitutes
21. Dahne T. (G) 31. Engelhardt M. (G) 33. Javorcek D. 3. Komenda M. 18. Machino S. 9. Pichler B. 8. Porath F. 23. Rosenboom L. 15. Schulz M.	21. Beck A. 14. Breunig M. 31. Conteh S. 22. Eicher V. (G) 17. Honsak M. 29. Kaufmann M. 20. Kerber L. 9. Schimmer S. 30. Theuerkauf N.
Coaches
Rapp M.	Schmidt F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Siersleben T. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Erras P. ⚽, Geschwill M. (A),
33', Gimber B. 🟨,
35', Gigovic A. 🟨,
38', Remberg N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Becker T. ↓, Rosenboom L. ↑,
46', Gigovic A. ↓, Porath F. ↑,
46', Siersleben T. ↓, Honsak M. ↑,
59', Porath F. 🟨,
68', Mainka P. 🟨,
70', Schoppner J. 🟨,
74', Gimber B. ↓, Kaufmann M. ↑,
74', Dorsch N. ↓, Breunig M. ↑,
76', Pieringer M. 🟨,
78', Skrzybski S. ↓, Schulz M. ↑,
78', Puchacz T. ↓, Komenda M. ↑,
84', Knudsen M. 🟨,
85', Harres P. ↓, Pichler B. ↑,
85', Wanner P. ↓, Beck A. ↑,
85', Pieringer M. ↓, Conteh S. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 10).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Holstein Kiel won 1.

Holstein Kiel has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Heidenheim is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Heidenheim could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Arp J.-F. (Red Card) Bernhardsson A. (Hip Injury) Kleine-Bekel C. (Surgery)

There are questionable in Holstein Kiel: Holtby L. (Back Injury) Johansson C. (Concussion) Kelati A. Y. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Heidenheim: Janes L. (Shoulder Injury) Keller T. (Knee Injury)

Last 14 head-to-head matches Holstein Kiel won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 17:25 (average 1.2:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Holstein Kiel won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9:8 (average 1.3:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holstein Kiel
German DFB Pokal
29.10.24	Köln - Holstein Kiel	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
26.10.24	Stuttgart - Holstein Kiel	2:1 ✺
20.10.24	Holstein Kiel - Union Berlin	0:2 ✺
05.10.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Holstein Kiel	2:2 ✺
29.09.24	Holstein Kiel - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.6 LLLTL
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
German DFB Pokal
30.10.24	Hertha Berlin - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
27.10.24	Heidenheim - Hoffenheim	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.10.24	Paphos - Heidenheim	0:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
19.10.24	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Heidenheim	3:2 ✺
06.10.24	Heidenheim - RB Leipzig	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
23.04.23	Heidenheim - Holstein Kiel	3:0
16.10.22	Holstein Kiel - Heidenheim	3:1
23.04.22	Holstein Kiel - Heidenheim	1:1
21.11.21	Heidenheim - Holstein Kiel	2:1
06.04.21	Heidenheim - Holstein Kiel	1:0
21.11.20	Holstein Kiel - Heidenheim	2:2
22.02.20	Holstein Kiel - Heidenheim	0:1

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