Match Info

National League South - Round 16

Date: 4 November 2025, Tuesday


	Tonbridge Angels		Chelmsford City

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.2	2.35
	2.96	3.25	2.38
	2.98	3.68	2.13	Watch
	2.88	3.14	2.31
	2.75	3.1	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↓ (2.98)	3.27 ↓ (3.68)	2.3 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tonbridge Angels
32%

Draw
28.1%

Chelmsford City
39.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

25.2%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

24.7%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tonbridge Angels has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Chelmsford City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tonbridge Angels than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelmsford City than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Tonbridge Angels - Chelmsford City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Folarin S. ⚽,
29', 0 - 2, Folarin S. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
54', 0 - 3, Adigun J. ⚽,
56', 1 - 3, Peart B. ⚽,
75', 2 - 3, Peart B. ⚽,
83', 2 - 4, Remy S. ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 15 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tonbridge won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Chelmsford may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Tonbridge won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 15:28. (average 0.9:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Tonbridge won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 1:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Tonbridge Angels - the odds 2.98 are the expected chance of winning is 31.16%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tonbridge Angels
English National League South
01.11.25	Maidstone United - Tonbridge Angels	1:2 ✺
25.10.25	Tonbridge Angels - Weston-super-Mare	0:0 ✺
21.10.25	Maidenhead United - Tonbridge Angels	1:1 ✺
18.10.25	Tonbridge Angels - Horsham	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
11.10.25	Tonbridge Angels - Chatham Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 WTTLL
- Chelmsford City
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Chelmsford City - Braintree Town	4:1 ✺
English National League South
28.10.25	Dover Athletic - Chelmsford City	0:1 ✺
25.10.25	Totton - Chelmsford City	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	Chelmsford City - Worthing	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
11.10.25	Chelmsford City - Chippenham Town	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
22.03.25	Tonbridge Angels - Chelmsford City	2:1
19.08.24	Chelmsford City - Tonbridge Angels	1:1
13.04.24	Chelmsford City - Tonbridge Angels	3:0
04.11.23	Tonbridge Angels - Chelmsford City	1:1
20.02.23	Chelmsford City - Tonbridge Angels	1:0
25.10.22	Tonbridge Angels - Chelmsford City	1:0
09.04.22	Chelmsford City - Tonbridge Angels	1:1

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