Match Info

CHINA: Super League - Round 23

Date: 16 August 2024, Friday

Location: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium (Zhengzhou)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	Migu, QQ Sports


	Henan Songshan Longmen		Cangzhou Mighty Lions

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.7	2.9	Watch
	2.15	3.4	2.9
	2.2	3.5	3	Watch
	2.27	3.55	3.07
	2.23	3.47	3.04	Watch
	2.05	3.6	3
	2.24	3.6	3.11	Watch
	2.2	3.5	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (1.52)	3.54 ↓ (4.43)	3 ↓ (5.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Henan Songshan Longmen
42.5%

Draw
26.4%

Cangzhou Mighty Lions
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.7%

21.1%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64%

20.3%

16.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Henan Songshan Longmen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Henan Songshan Longmen's form might have worsened.

Cangzhou Mighty Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cangzhou Mighty Lions's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Henan Songshan Longmen than the current prediction. (+21.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Henan Songshan Longmen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cangzhou Mighty Lions than the current prediction. (-14.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cangzhou Mighty Lions, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.4%	4.5%	9.1%

Henan Songshan Longmen - Cangzhou Mighty Lions Predictions

Users Predictions: Henan Songshan Longmen will win (19 of 22 users predict this - 86.36%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.02% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Wang Guoming (G) 28. He Guan 27. Niu Ziyi 5. Gu Cao 30. Ding Haifeng 22. Huang Ruifeng 8. Denic D. 10. Huang Zichang 6. Wang Shangyuan (C) 7. Zhong Yihao 9. Feng Boyuan	28. Han Rongze (G) 7. Zheng Dalun 36. Yang Yun 6. Obileye A. (C) 16. Zheng Kaimu 32. Sun M. 10. Taty Maritu O. 19. Zhukov G. 15. Wang Peng 31. Solomon-Otabor V. 9. Heber
Substitutes
40. Bruno Nazario 21. Chen Keqiang 14. Du Zhixuan 23. Ke Zhao 24. Li Songyi 32. Li T. 2. Liu Yixin 4. Shinar Y. 17. Wang Jinshuai (G) 26. Xu Jiamin (G) 16. Yang Kuo 19. Yang Yilin	37. Dong Hang (G) 29. Han Feng (G) 25. Hou J. 35. Jianyi Zhou 23. Li Hong 20. Liu Xinyu 14. Shao Puliang (G) 13. Sun Qinhan 17. Wen Da 18. Yao X. 12. Zhu Yue
Coaches
Nam Ki-Il	Li Xiaopeng

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Niu Ziyi (Own goal),
30', Zheng Dalun 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Zhong Yihao ↓, Bruno Nazario ↑,
46', Solomon-Otabor V. ↓, Yao X. ↑,
59', Heber ↓, Li Hong ↑,
64', Huang Zichang ↓, Yang Yilin ↑,
64', Ding Haifeng ↓, Chen Keqiang ↑,
69', Yang Yun ↓, Zhu Yue ↑,
70', Obileye A. ↓, Liu Xinyu ↑,
79', Niu Ziyi ↓, Ke Zhao ↑,
90+1', 0 - 2, Liu Xinyu ⚽,
90+4', Taty Maritu O. ↓, Wen Da ↑,
90+4', Huang Ruifeng ↓, Li T. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 6 and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Henan Songshan Longmen won 4.

Henan Songshan Longmen in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Cangzhou is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Henan Songshan Longmen will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Henan Songshan Longmen won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 17-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Henan Songshan Longmen won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Henan Songshan Longmen
Chinese Super League
10.08.24	Qingdao Hainiu - Henan Songshan Longmen	0:2 ✺
04.08.24	Nantong Zhiyun - Henan Songshan Longmen	1:1 ✺
28.07.24	Henan Songshan Longmen - Shandong Taishan	1:0 ✺
21.07.24	Henan Songshan Longmen - Zhejiang Professional	2:1 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
17.07.24	Henan Songshan Longmen - Guangxi Pingguo Haliao	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WTWWW
- Cangzhou Mighty Lions
Chinese Super League
09.08.24	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Shandong Taishan	3:1 ✺
02.08.24	Qingdao West Coast - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	1:1 ✺
27.07.24	Changchun Yatai - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	1:0 ✺
22.07.24	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Shanghai Shenhua	0:5 ✺
12.07.24	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Wuhan Three Towns	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Super League
26.04.24	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Henan Songshan Longmen	2:3
21.10.23	Henan Songshan Longmen - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	6:0
28.06.23	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Henan Songshan Longmen	0:1
15.12.22	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Henan Songshan Longmen	1:1
24.10.22	Henan Songshan Longmen - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	3:0
27.07.21	Henan Songshan Longmen - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	2:1
27.04.21	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Henan Songshan Longmen	0:0

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