Match Info

BRAZIL: Catarinense - Round 1

Date: 19 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Anibal Torres Costa (Tubarao)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Brasileirao Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Hercílio Luz		Criciúma

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.85	3.1	1.89
	4.09	3.36	1.84
	4.08	3.37	1.83	Watch
	4.14	3.34	1.85
	3.85	3.1	1.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	4 ↑ (3.49)	3.25 ↑ (3.1)	1.86 ↓ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hercílio Luz
22.8%

Draw
28.1%

Criciúma
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26%

29.2%

44.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

27.3%

41.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hercílio Luz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hercílio Luz than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Criciúma, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Hercílio Luz - Criciúma Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Hercílio Luz will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Criciúma will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Renan Rocha (G) 9. Alex Henrique 8. Alison 4. Alisson Santana 10. Gabriel Silva 3. Geninho (C) 11. Kadu Barone 2. Lucas Lopes 6. Mateus Mendes 5. Matheus Neris 7. Richard	1. Caique (G) 7. Fellipe Mateus 21. Joao Carlos 13. Jonathan 23. Juninho 4. Luciano Castan 22. Marcelo Hermes 5. Matheus Trindade 9. Neto Pessoa 18. Paulo Vitor 3. Rodrigo (C)
Substitutes
21. Andre Baumer 20. Caique Brito 13. Davi Souza 14. de Araujo Reis B. 19. Dudu Silva 15. Emanuel Jesus 18. Filipe Fraga 12. Igor Pavan (G) 16. Leo Herrero 17. Luiz Felipe 23. Yuri Sousa	17. Eduardo Melo 15. Eliedson 8. Everton Morelli 20. Gabriel Barros 10. Jhonata Robert 12. Kaua Moroso (G) 2. Leo Alaba 6. Luiz Henrique 11. Petterson 14. Ruan Carvalho 16. Streit M. 19. Werik Popo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Geninho 🟥,
12', Joao Carlos 🟨,
26', Matheus Neris ↓, Bruno Gabriel ↑,
41', Paulo Vitor ↓, Everton Morelli ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Joao Carlos ↓, Gabriel Barros ↑,
49', Everton Morelli 🟨,
53', Marcelo Hermes 🟨,
58', 0 - 1, Everton Morelli ⚽,
60', Juninho ↓, Jhonata Robert ↑,
62', Gabriel Silva ↓, Emanuel Jesus ↑,
62', Richard ↓, Yuri Sousa ↑,
70', Alex Henrique ↓, Dudu Silva ↑,
70', Mateus Mendes ↓, Leo Herrero ↑,
79', Yuri Sousa 🟨,
81', Neto Pessoa ↓, Eduardo Melo ↑,
81', Jonathan ↓, Leo Alaba ↑,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Catarinense (Play Offs: )).

Criciúma is Qualified for Catarinense (Play Offs )

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hercílio Luz won 1.

Hercílio Luz is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Criciúma is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Hercílio Luz could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Criciúma will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Hercílio Luz won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 6:14 (average 0.5:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Hercílio Luz won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:3 (average 0.6:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hercílio Luz FC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
16.02.25	Hercílio Luz - Chapecoense	2:2 ✺
13.02.25	Hercílio Luz - Joinville	2:1 ✺
09.02.25	Concórdia - Hercílio Luz	1:0 ✺
05.02.25	Hercílio Luz - Avaí	0:3 ✺
02.02.25	Caravaggio - Hercílio Luz	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TWLLL
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
15.02.25	Criciúma - Náutico Marcílio Dias	0:0 ✺
12.02.25	Criciúma - Caravaggio	1:2 ✺
08.02.25	Brusque - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
05.02.25	Criciúma - Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Chapecoense - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 TLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
17.03.24	Criciúma - Hercílio Luz	2:1
09.03.24	Hercílio Luz - Criciúma	1:1
28.01.24	Criciúma - Hercílio Luz	2:0
29.03.23	Hercílio Luz - Criciúma	2:1
25.03.23	Criciúma - Hercílio Luz	2:0
08.02.23	Hercílio Luz - Criciúma	0:0
24.02.21	Criciúma - Hercílio Luz	1:1

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