Match Info

National League North - Round 43

Date: 6 April 2026, Monday

Location: Edgar Street (Hereford)


	Hereford		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.7	2.4
	2.35	3.75	2.48
	2.48	3.89	2.44
	2.46	3.89	2.46	Watch
	2.45	3.6	2.45
	2.42	3.68	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↓ (2.42)	3.75 ↓ (4.13)	2.43 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hereford
38%

Draw
24.4%

Merthyr Town
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

22.5%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.8%

21.7%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hereford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hereford than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Hereford - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Hudson L. ⚽,
24', 2 - 0, Lane M. ⚽,
34', 3 - 0, Preston M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Hereford is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Merthyr is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Merthyr may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Hereford won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Hereford won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Outrights of English National League North for now

Hereford: 11.21% Merthyr Town: 1.46%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Hereford	10	7	2	1	22:5	17	23
13	Merthyr Town	10	3	4	3	12:11	1	13

Last Results with these Odds

Hereford - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 38.36%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Merthyr Town - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 39.17%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hereford FC
English National League North
03.04.26	Kidderminster Harriers - Hereford	2:1 ✺
31.03.26	Hereford - Macclesfield Town	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Hereford - Buxton	0:2 ✺
24.03.26	Hereford - Spennymoor Town	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Macclesfield Town - Hereford	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Merthyr Town
English National League North
03.04.26	Merthyr Town - Oxford City	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	South Shields - Merthyr Town	4:1 ✺
14.03.26	Merthyr Town - Spennymoor Town	2:3 ✺
10.03.26	Merthyr Town - Chester	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Radcliffe - Merthyr Town	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
30.12.25	Merthyr Town - Hereford	2:2
English Southern Premier League
26.12.17	Merthyr Town - Hereford	0:0
28.08.17	Hereford - Merthyr Town	1:1

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