Match Info

GERMANY: 2. Bundesliga - Round 19

Date: 25 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Olympiastadion (Berlin)

Referee: Burda M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hertha Berlin		Hamburger SV

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.8	2.3	Watch
	2.75	3.75	2.35
	2.7	3.6	2.35
	2.85	3.85	2.4
	2.79	3.85	2.4	Watch
	2.75	3.7	2.3	Watch
	2.64	3.86	2.42	Watch
	2.7	3.6	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.6)	3.75 ↓ (3.81)	2.36 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hertha Berlin
34.6%

Draw
25.2%

Hamburger SV
40.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

24.7%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

24.9%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hertha Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hertha Berlin than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	13.6%	36.4%

Hertha Berlin - Hamburger SV Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Hertha will win (votes: 11 - 50%). Hamburg will win (votes: 8 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hertha: 29.1% – 70.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Gersbeck M. (G) 33. Karbownik M. 37. Leistner T. (C) 31. Dardai M. 42. Zeefuik D. 27. Cuisance M. 41. Klemens P. 20. Dardai P. 10. Maza I. 39. Scherhant D. 7. Niederlechner F.	1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 2. Mikelbrencis W. 5. Hadzikadunic D. 8. Elfadli D. 28. Muheim M. 17. Karabec A. 23. Meffert J. (C) 20. Richter M. 29. Sahiti E. 27. Selke D. 7. Dompe J.
Substitutes
5. Bouchalakis A. 1. Ernst T. (G) 44. Gechter L. 9. Prevljak S. 11. Reese F. 18. Schuler L. 8. Sessa K. 24. Thorsteinsson J. D. 22. Winkler M.	30. Hefti S. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 12. Mickel T. (G) 47. Oliveira N. 24. Perrin L. 6. Poreba L. 14. Reis L. 4. Schonlau S. 49. Stange O.
Coaches
Fiel C.	Polzin M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', Sahiti E. 🟨,
11', Hadzikadunic D. 🟨,
23', 0 - 1, Selke D. ⚽, Karabec A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
55', Selke D. ↓, Konigsdorffer R. ↑,
61', 0 - 2, Konigsdorffer R. ⚽, Dompe J. (A),
62', Niederlechner F. 🟨,
66', Karbownik M. ↓, Reese F. ↑,
66', Niederlechner F. ↓, Prevljak S. ↑,
66', Dardai P. ↓, Winkler M. ↑,
72', 1 - 2, Cuisance M. ⚽, Scherhant D. (A),
76', Karabec A. ↓, Poreba L. ↑,
80', 2 - 2, Winkler M. ⚽, Reese F. (A),
84', 2 - 3, Sahiti E. ⚽, Richter M. (A),
85', Maza I. ↓, Sessa K. ↑,
86', Richter M. ↓, Reis L. ↑,
86', Sahiti E. ↓, Schonlau S. ↑,
86', Meffert J. ↓, Hefti S. ↑,
88', Poreba L. 🟨,
90+5', Muheim M. 🟨,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 12 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Promotion: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hertha won 2.

Hertha is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Hamburg is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Hertha have a series of guest games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Hertha: Reese F. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Hamburg: Glatzel R. (Tendon Injury) Katterbach N. (Knee Injury) Raab M. (Broken Hand) Reis L. (Knee Injury)

Last 18 head-to-head matches Hertha won 11 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 25:17 (average 1.4:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Hertha won 7 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 16:7 (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hertha Berlin
German 2 Bundesliga
19.01.25	Paderborn - Hertha Berlin	1:2 ✺
22.12.24	Hannover - Hertha Berlin	0:0 ✺
13.12.24	Hertha Berlin - Preußen Münster	1:2 ✺
07.12.24	Greuther Fürth - Hertha Berlin	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
04.12.24	Köln - Hertha Berlin	2:1 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WTLLL
- Hamburger SV
German 2 Bundesliga
18.01.25	Hamburger SV - Köln	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
10.01.25	FCSB - Hamburger SV	2:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
21.12.24	Hamburger SV - Greuther Fürth	5:0 ✺
14.12.24	Ulm 1846 - Hamburger SV	1:1 ✺
08.12.24	Hamburger SV - Darmstadt	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
10.08.24	Hamburger SV - Hertha Berlin	1:1
03.02.24	Hertha Berlin - Hamburger SV	1:2
German DFB Pokal
06.12.23	Hertha Berlin - Hamburger SV	4:3 penalties
German 2 Bundesliga
19.08.23	Hamburger SV - Hertha Berlin	3:0
German Bundesliga
23.05.22	Hamburger SV - Hertha Berlin	0:2
19.05.22	Hertha Berlin - Hamburger SV	0:1
Club Friendly
05.09.20	Hamburger SV - Hertha Berlin	2:0

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