Match Info

GERMANY: DFB POKAL - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 1 November 2023, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Voyo
Germany	Sky Sport, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top event
Poland	Eleven Sports 3, Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Eleven Sports 2
Serbia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	Viaplay


	Hertha Berlin		Mainz

	1	X	2
	2.63	4	2.38	Watch
	2.55	3.7	2.5
	2.75	3.75	2.45	Watch
	2.7	3.65	2.19
	2.72	3.78	2.49
	2.5	3.7	2.3
	2.57	3.8	2.49	Watch
	2.6	3.8	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (2.96)	3.77 ↑ (3.4)	2.41 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hertha Berlin
35.9%

Draw
25%

Mainz
39.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

27.6%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

26.9%

39.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hertha Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hertha Berlin than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.8%	38.9%	33.3%

Hertha Berlin - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Hertha will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). Mainz will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 38.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.4% – 61.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ernst T. (G) 16. Kenny J. 37. Leistner T. (C) 20. Kempf M. O. 34. Zeefuik D. 41. Klemens P. 31. Dardai M. 22. Winkler M. 7. Niederlechner F. 11. Reese F. 25. Tabakovic H.	27. Zentner R. (C) 20. Fernandes E. 23. Guilavogui J. 5. Leitsch M. 19. Caci A. 14. Krauss T. 8. Barreiro L. 4. Barkok A. 43. Gruda B. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 9. Onisiwo K.
Substitutes
5. Bouchalakis A. 26. Christensen G. 44. Gechter L. 8. Hussein B. 6. Karbownik M. 33. Kwasigroch R. (G) 2. Pekarik P. 9. Prevljak S. 39. Scherhant D.	17. Ajorque L. 33. Batz D. (G) 21. da Costa D. 31. Kohr D. 45. Mamutovic D. 24. Papela M. 10. Richter M. 3. van den Berg S. 30. Widmer S.
Coaches
Dardai P.	Svensson B.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hertha won 0.

Recent matches Hertha is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Mainz is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 21 head-to-head matches Hertha won 6 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 22-26.

Including matches at home between the teams Hertha won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 13-14.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hertha Berlin
German 2 Bundesliga
28.10.23	Hertha Berlin - Paderborn	3:1 ✺
22.10.23	Nürnberg - Hertha Berlin	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
12.10.23	Tennis Borussia Berlin - Hertha Berlin	1:6 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
08.10.23	Schalke 04 - Hertha Berlin	1:2 ✺
30.09.23	Hertha Berlin - St. Pauli	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLWWL
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
27.10.23	Bochum - Mainz	2:2 ✺
21.10.23	Mainz - Bayern Munich	1:3 ✺
06.10.23	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	2:2 ✺
30.09.23	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	0:3 ✺
23.09.23	Augsburg - Mainz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
11.03.23	Hertha Berlin - Mainz	1:1
16.09.22	Mainz - Hertha Berlin	1:1
07.05.22	Hertha Berlin - Mainz	1:2
14.12.21	Mainz - Hertha Berlin	4:0
03.05.21	Mainz - Hertha Berlin	1:1
15.12.20	Hertha Berlin - Mainz	0:0
08.02.20	Hertha Berlin - Mainz	1:3

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