Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 31

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Petersen M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Mainz		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	4.33	4.5	1.67	Watch
	4.45	4.45	1.68
	3.78	4.6	1.89
	3.82	4.43	1.84	Watch
	4.2	4.2	1.65
	4.63	4.68	1.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.2 ↓ (5.43)	4.48 ↓ (5.21)	1.74 ↑ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
23%

Draw
21.6%

Bayern Munich
55.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.5%

18.2%

64.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.3%

18%

65%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mainz's performance.

Bayern Munich has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bayern Munich might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mainz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bayern Munich could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.7%	12.5%	68.7%

Mainz - Bayern Munich Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 6 - 19.4%). Bayern will win (votes: 21 - 67.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 12.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 51.2% – 84.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Bayern (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 1 - 50%). Bayern (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Batz D. (G) 21. da Costa D. 4. Posch S. 31. Kohr D. 30. Widmer S. (C) 8. Nebel P. 6. Sano K. 10. Amiri N. 2. Mwene P. 23. Becker S. 20. Tietz P.	40. Urbig J. (G) 27. Laimer K. 3. Kim Min-Jae 21. Ito H. 19. Davies A. 39. Ndiaye B. 45. Pavlovic A. 22. Guerreiro R. 8. Goretzka L. (C) 14. Diaz L. 11. Jackson N.
Substitutes
14. Boving W. 19. Caci A. 24. Kawasaki S. 15. Maloney L. 48. Potulski K. 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N. 27. Zentner R. (G)	33. Assomo B. 9. Kane H. 10. Musiala J. 1. Neuer M. (G) 34. Ofli D. 17. Olise M. 43. Pavic F. 44. Stanisic J. 4. Tah J.
Coaches
Fischer U.	Kompany V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Kohr D. ⚽, Sano K. (A),
20', Kohr D. 🟨,
29', 2 - 0, Nebel P. ⚽,
33', Laimer K. 🟨,
45+2', 3 - 0, Becker S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
46', Pavlovic A. ↓, Kane H. ↑,
46', Diaz L. ↓, Olise M. ↑,
53', 3 - 1, Jackson N. ⚽, Laimer K. (A),
57', Davies A. ↓, Stanisic J. ↑,
57', Guerreiro R. ↓, Musiala J. ↑,
71', Becker S. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
73', 3 - 2, Olise M. ⚽, Laimer K. (A),
77', Ndiaye B. ↓, Tah J. ↑,
79', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
80', Widmer S. ↓, Caci A. ↑,
80', 3 - 3, Musiala J. ⚽,
83', 3 - 4, Kane H. ⚽,
85', Kohr D. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
85', Nebel P. ↓, Boving W. ↑,
90+7', Olise M. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Bayern is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 1.

Recent performances by Mainz have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Bayern is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Mainz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bayern is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Mainz: Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hollerbach B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Lee Jae-Sung (Toe Injury) Leitsch M. (Thigh Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone)

There will not play in Bayern: Bischof T. (Calf Injury) Cardozo M. (Thigh Injury) Gnabry S. (Muscle Injury) Karl L. (Muscle Injury) Kiala C. (Ankle Injury) Mike W. (Hip Injury) Ulreich S. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 24:66. (average 1.2:3.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:22. (average 1.3:2.2).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayern Munich: 80.09% Mainz: 0.29%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	14:2	12	10
6	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7

Last Results with these Odds

Bayern Munich - the odds 1.48 are the expected chance of winning is 64.24%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
19.04.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.04.26	Strasbourg - Mainz	4:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
12.04.26	Mainz - Freiburg	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Mainz - Strasbourg	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
04.04.26	Hoffenheim - Mainz	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TLLWW
- Bayern Munich
German DFB Pokal
22.04.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
19.04.26	Bayern Munich - Stuttgart	4:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
15.04.26	Bayern Munich - Real Madrid	4:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
11.04.26	St. Pauli - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
UEFA Champions League
07.04.26	Real Madrid - Bayern Munich	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
14.12.25	Bayern Munich - Mainz	2:2
26.04.25	Bayern Munich - Mainz	3:0
14.12.24	Mainz - Bayern Munich	2:1
German DFB Pokal
30.10.24	Mainz - Bayern Munich	0:4
German Bundesliga
09.03.24	Bayern Munich - Mainz	8:1
21.10.23	Mainz - Bayern Munich	1:3
22.04.23	Mainz - Bayern Munich	3:1

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