Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 4

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: WWK Arena (Augsburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	15:30	Tring Sport 5
Argentina	10:30	Disney+
Australia	23:30	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Canada	09:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	10:30	Disney+
China	21:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	08:30	Disney+
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Germany	15:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports Extra 2
Hong Kong	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	13:30	Viaplay
India	19:00	Vision+
Indonesia	20:30	K-Vision
Japan	22:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	20:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	07:30	Sky Sport
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	15:30	Viaplay
Pakistan	18:30	Tapmad
Peru	08:30	Disney+
Philippines	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	14:30	DAZN / App
Russia	16:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	16:30	Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Sport 7
Singapore	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
South Korea	22:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Thailand	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	16:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Uruguay	10:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	09:30	Disney+
Vietnam	20:30	TV 360
International	13:30	Onefootball


	Augsburg		Mainz

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.5	2.6	Watch
	2.68	3.45	2.58	Watch
	2.69	3.56	2.72
	16.14	7.36	1.15	Watch
	2.7	3.73	2.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.37 ↑ (2.73)	4.32 ↑ (3.4)	2.34 ↓ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Augsburg
22.1%

Draw
27.4%

Mainz
50.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.9%

28%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

28.5%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Augsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Augsburg's form might have worsened.

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mainz's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Augsburg than the current prediction. (+13.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Augsburg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-14%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mainz, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45%	20%	35%

Augsburg - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Augsburg will win (votes: 9 - 45%). Mainz will win (votes: 7 - 35%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Augsburg: 23.2% – 66.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Augsburg (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Augsburg (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Augsburg (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mainz will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Augsburg (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Mainz (votes: 5 - 55.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dahmen F. (G) 5. Matsima C. 6. Gouweleeuw J. (C) 16. Zesiger C. 27. Wolf M. 4. Massengo H. 20. Claude-Maurice A. 8. Rexhbecaj E. 32. Rieder F. 36. Komur M. 26. Saad E.	27. Zentner R. (G) 21. da Costa D. 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 31. Kohr D. 19. Caci A. 6. Sano K. 10. Amiri N. (C) 2. Mwene P. 8. Nebel P. 9. Nordin A. 11. Sieb A.
Substitutes
40. Banks N. 9. Essende S. 19. Fellhauer R. 11. Gharbi I. 17. Jakic K. 22. Labrovic N. (G) 10. Maier A. 31. Schlotterbeck K. 21. Tietz P.	16. Bell S. 37. Bobzien B. 14. Boving W. 5. Leitsch M. 15. Maloney L. 1. Riess L. (G) 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N. 30. Widmer S.
Coaches
Wagner S.	Henriksen B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
14', 0 - 1, Sano K. ⚽,
16', Kohr D. 🟨,
18', Gouweleeuw J. 🟨,
26', 0 - 2, Kohr D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Zesiger C. ↓, Schlotterbeck K. ↑,
46', Wolf M. ↓, Jakic K. ↑,
46', Saad E. ↓, Essende S. ↑,
46', Rexhbecaj E. ↓, Fellhauer R. ↑,
53', Kohr D. 🟨,
56', Nordin A. ↓, Bell S. ↑,
60', 0 - 3, Nebel P. ⚽, Sano K. (A),
67', Gouweleeuw J. ↓, Tietz P. ↑,
69', 0 - 4, Sieb A. ⚽, Hanche-Olsen A. (A),
81', Mwene P. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
81', Hanche-Olsen A. ↓, Leitsch M. ↑,
81', Sieb A. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
83', 1 - 4, Essende S. ⚽,
85', Caci A. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Augsburg won 1.

In recent matches, Augsburg has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mainz's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Augsburg: Giannoulis D. (Thigh Injury) Kade A. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Mainz: Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hollerbach B. (Hamstring Injury) Lee Jae-Sung (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Mainz: Widmer S. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Augsburg won 10 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 31:31. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Augsburg won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:14. (average 2.1:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Augsburg
German Bundesliga
14.09.25	St. Pauli - Augsburg	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.09.25	Augsburg - Greuther Fürth	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
30.08.25	Augsburg - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
23.08.25	Freiburg - Augsburg	1:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
17.08.25	Hallescher - Augsburg	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LLLWW
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Mainz - RB Leipzig	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Wolfsburg - Mainz	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Mainz - Rosenborg	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
24.08.25	Mainz - Köln	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
21.08.25	Rosenborg - Mainz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
08.02.25	Mainz - Augsburg	0:0
20.09.24	Augsburg - Mainz	2:3
17.02.24	Mainz - Augsburg	1:0
23.09.23	Augsburg - Mainz	2:1
11.02.23	Mainz - Augsburg	3:1
20.08.22	Augsburg - Mainz	1:2
06.04.22	Augsburg - Mainz	2:1

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