Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Final

Date: 21 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Easter Road (Edinburgh)

Referee: Al-Emara M. (Fin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 2
United-kingdom	Solidsport TV


	Hibernian		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.6	2.2	Watch
	2.75	3.4	2.25
	2.98	3.45	2.18	Watch
	3.04	3.62	2.25
	2.53	3.58	2.44	Watch
	2.91	3.75	2.29	Watch
	3.2	3.5	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.47)	3.56 ↑ (3.5)	2.25 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hibernian
32.3%

Draw
26.2%

Legia Warsaw
41.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

26.9%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

27.3%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hibernian has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hibernian's form might have worsened.

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Legia Warsaw's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hibernian than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hibernian, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Legia Warsaw, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
24.3%	29.7%	45.9%

Hibernian - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Hibernian will win (votes: 7 - 20%). Legia will win (votes: 17 - 48.6%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 31.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Legia: 32% – 65.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Hibernian (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Legia (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Hibernian (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Hibernian (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Legia (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Smith J. (G) 5. O'Hora W. 33. Bushiri R. 15. Iredale J. 21. Obita J. 12. Cadden Ch. 6. Levitt D. 20. Mulligan J. 10. Boyle M. (C) 9. Bowie K. 32. Campbell J.	1. Tobiasz K. (G) 55. Jedrzejczyk A. (C) 24. Ziolkowski J. 3. Kapuadi S. 19. Vinagre R. 7. Wszolek P. 8. Augustyniak R. 22. Elitim J. 21. Bichakhchyan V. 18. Nsame J. 67. Kapustka B.
Substitutes
19. Cadden N. 14. Chaiwa M. 4. Hanley G. 23. Hoilett J. 18. Klidje T. 30. MacIntyre J. 8. Manneh A. 17. McGrath J. 27. Megwa K. 35. Molotnikov R. 1. Sallinger R. (G) 7. Youan T.	9. Alfarela M. 50. Banasik W. (G) 4. Burch M. 27. Kobylak G. (G) 23. Kun P. 25. Morishita R. 29. Rajovic M. 13. Reca A. 30. Stojanovic P. 44. Szymanski D. 53. Urbanski W. 20. Zewlakow J.
Coaches
Gray D.	Iordanescu E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', Campbell J. 🟨,
18', Kapustka B. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Nsame J. (Pen),
38', Levitt D. 🟨,
45+3', 0 - 2, Wszolek P. ⚽, Nsame J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Campbell J. ↓, McGrath J. ↑,
53', Levitt D. ↓, Chaiwa M. ↑,
53', Iredale J. ↓, Cadden N. ↑,
69', Chaiwa M. 🟨,
71', Bichakhchyan V. 🟨,
72', Bichakhchyan V. ↓, Morishita R. ↑,
75', Ziolkowski J. 🟨,
76', Cadden Ch. ↓, Hoilett J. ↑,
78', Nsame J. ↓, Rajovic M. ↑,
80', Boyle M. ↓, Klidje T. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Mulligan J. ⚽,
88', Elitim J. ↓, Szymanski D. ↑,
88', Kapustka B. ↓, Stojanovic P. ↑,
90+4', Bushiri R. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Hibernian is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Legia has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hibernian FC
Scottish League Cup
17.08.25	Livingston - Hibernian	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
14.08.25	Hibernian - Partizan	2:3 ET ✺
Scottish Premier League
10.08.25	Hibernian - Kilmarnock	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Partizan - Hibernian	0:2 ✺
Scottish Premier League
03.08.25	Dundee - Hibernian	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLTWW
- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
17.08.25	Wisła Płock - Legia Warsaw	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
14.08.25	Legia Warsaw - AEK Larnaca	2:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
10.08.25	Legia Warsaw - GKS Katowice	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.08.25	AEK Larnaca - Legia Warsaw	4:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.08.25	Legia Warsaw - Arka Gdynia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWWLT

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