Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 14 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw)

Referee: Treimanis A. (Lat)

Where to Watch on TV:


Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Poland	TVP 2
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Arena sport 1


	Legia Warsaw		AEK Larnaca

	1	X	2
	1.6	4	5	Watch
	1.65	4	4.6
	1.6	4.25	4.7	Watch
	1.62	4	5.26
	1.22	6.17	12.01	Watch
	1.62	4	4.5
	1.59	4.31	5.38	Watch
	1.7	3.9	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.7)	4.33 ↑ (4.1)	5.71 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
61%

Draw
22.2%

AEK Larnaca
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.4%

22.5%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

22.1%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Legia Warsaw's performance.

AEK Larnaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AEK Larnaca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Legia Warsaw that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEK Larnaca than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AEK Larnaca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.6%	5.8%	11.6%

Legia Warsaw - AEK Larnaca Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 39 Selected Experts predict this event. Legia (votes: 28 - 71.8%). AEK Larnaca (votes: 9 - 23.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 5.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

TQ, OT - Legia (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +0.5 - AEK Larnaca (2.36) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - AEK Larnaca (2.28) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Legia Warsaw will win (56 of 67 users predict this - 83.58%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.71% – 92.45%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 48 Selected Experts predict this event. Legia (votes: 29 - 60.4%). AEK Larnaca (votes: 17 - 35.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 4.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tobiasz K. (G) 7. Wszolek P. 24. Ziolkowski J. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. (C) 3. Kapuadi S. 21. Bichakhchyan V. 8. Augustyniak R. 19. Vinagre R. 25. Morishita R. 18. Nsame J. 29. Rajovic M.	1. Alomerovic Z. (G) 22. Ekpolo G. 27. Roberge V. 14. Garcia A. (C) 93. Gnali J. 17. Pons P. 15. Milicevic H. 7. Ledes Gustavo 9. Ivanovic D. 19. Angielski K. 18. Chacon Y.
Substitutes
9. Alfarela M. 50. Banasik W. (G) 4. Burch M. 22. Elitim J. 27. Kobylak G. (G) 23. Kun P. 12. Pankov R. 13. Reca A. 17. Shkurin I. 30. Stojanovic P. 53. Urbanski W. 20. Zewlakow J.	20. Amyn Y. 11. Bajic R. 30. Cabrera E. 24. Danny Henriques 99. Demetriou D. (G) 37. Gerasimou D. 2. Ioannou P. 6. Jimmy Suarez 36. Loukaidis C. 41. Mathias Gonzalez 21. Miramon 51. Paraskevas A. (G)
Coaches
Iordanescu E.	Idiakez I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
1', Jedrzejczyk A. 🟨,
11', 1 - 0, Nsame J. ⚽, Wszolek P. (A),
16', 2 - 0, Rajovic M. ⚽, Bichakhchyan V. (A),
38', Vinagre R. 🟨,
45', Iordanescu E. 🟨,
45+4', Roberge V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', 2 - 1, Ivanovic D. ⚽,
61', Rajovic M. ↓, Alfarela M. ↑,
63', Gnali J. 🟨,
68', Milicevic H. 🟨,
71', Angielski K. ↓, Cabrera E. ↑,
71', Bichakhchyan V. ↓, Stojanovic P. ↑,
71', Morishita R. ↓, Urbanski W. ↑,
72', Gnali J. 🟨,
78', Tobiasz K. 🟨,
78', Augustyniak R. 🟨,
78', Chacon Y. 🟨,
79', Jedrzejczyk A. ↓, Shkurin I. ↑,
79', Vinagre R. ↓, Reca A. ↑,
85', Ivanovic D. 🟨,
86', Ivanovic D. ↓, Jimmy Suarez ↑,
86', Chacon Y. ↓, Miramon ↑,
89', Idiakez I. 🟨,
90+7', Garcia A. ↓, Danny Henriques ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-4. 2nd leg.

Legia is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

AEK Larnaca is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

AEK Larnaca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Legia is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Legia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.5:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Legia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
10.08.25	Legia Warsaw - GKS Katowice	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.08.25	AEK Larnaca - Legia Warsaw	4:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.08.25	Legia Warsaw - Arka Gdynia	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
31.07.25	Legia Warsaw - Baník Ostrava	2:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.07.25	Korona Kielce - Legia Warsaw	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLTWW
- AEK Larnaca
UEFA Europa League
07.08.25	AEK Larnaca - Legia Warsaw	4:1 ✺
31.07.25	AEK Larnaca - Celje	2:1 ✺
24.07.25	Celje - AEK Larnaca	1:1 ✺
17.07.25	Partizan - AEK Larnaca	2:2 penalties ✺
10.07.25	AEK Larnaca - Partizan	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
07.08.25	AEK Larnaca - Legia Warsaw	4:1
Club Friendly
16.06.16	Legia Warsaw - AEK Larnaca	0:1

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