Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 5

Date: 17 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Orlen Stadion (Płock)

Referee: Kuzma L. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	FOX Sports 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Spain	GolStadium
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Wisła Płock		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	3	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.2	3.4	2.15
	3.1	3.45	2.12	Watch
	3.12	3.6	2.27
	1.78	3.63	4.42	Watch
	3.1	3.3	2.15
	3.12	3.52	2.19	Watch
	3.3	3.3	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↓ (3.3)	3.45 ↑ (3.3)	2.45 ↑ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wisła Płock
32.6%

Draw
28%

Legia Warsaw
39.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

29.3%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wisła Płock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wisła Płock than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Wisła Płock that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Legia Warsaw could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	44.4%	11.1%

Wisła Płock - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Wisła Płock will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Legia will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wisła Płock: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Wisła Płock (votes: 1 - 25%). Legia (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Leszczynski R. (C) 4. Haglind-Sangre M. 35. Kaminski M. 19. Edmundsson A. 8. Pacheco D. 2. Custovic K. 13. Lecoeuche Q. 30. Nowak W. 14. Kun D. 20. Sekulski L. 11. Jimenez J.	1. Tobiasz K. (G) 7. Wszolek P. 24. Ziolkowski J. 3. Kapuadi S. 13. Reca A. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 4. Burch M. 21. Bichakhchyan V. 30. Stojanovic P. 25. Morishita R. 29. Rajovic M.
Substitutes
7. Barnowski D. 27. Borowski B. 17. Djalo M. 16. Hiszpanski F. 3. Kalandadze A. 22. Krawczyk P. 25. Mijuskovic N. 5. Nastic B. 6. Pomorski K. 1. Pruszkowski S. (G)	9. Alfarela M. 8. Augustyniak R. 22. Elitim J. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 27. Kobylak G. (G) 23. Kun P. 18. Nsame J. 17. Shkurin I. 53. Urbanski W. 19. Vinagre R. 20. Zewlakow J.
Coaches
Misiura M.	Iordanescu E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Kaminski M. ⚽, Jimenez J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Morishita R. ↓, Elitim J. ↑,
61', Stojanovic P. ↓, Nsame J. ↑,
61', Reca A. ↓, Vinagre R. ↑,
68', Lecoeuche Q. ↓, Nastic B. ↑,
72', Rajovic M. ↓, Shkurin I. ↑,
74', Pacheco D. ↓, Mijuskovic N. ↑,
74', Jimenez J. ↓, Djalo M. ↑,
76', 🟨,
78', Bichakhchyan V. ↓, Zewlakow J. ↑,
85', Sekulski L. ↓, Pomorski K. ↑,
85', Custovic K. ↓, Kalandadze A. ↑,
87', Kapustka B. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wisła Płock won 3.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Wisła Płock may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Legia has had a series of home games.

Legia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Wisła Płock: Gostomski M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Wisła Płock: Wieckowski M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Legia: Goncalves C. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Wisła Płock won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 23:33. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Wisła Płock won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 0.8:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wisła Płock
Polish Ekstraklasa
09.08.25	Widzew Łódź - Wisła Płock	1:1 ✺
01.08.25	Wisła Płock - Piast Gliwice	2:0 ✺
27.07.25	Raków Częstochowa - Wisła Płock	1:2 ✺
19.07.25	Wisła Płock - Korona Kielce	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
11.07.25	Motor Lublin - Wisła Płock	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.6 TWWWT
- Legia Warsaw
UEFA Europa League
14.08.25	Legia Warsaw - AEK Larnaca	2:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
10.08.25	Legia Warsaw - GKS Katowice	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.08.25	AEK Larnaca - Legia Warsaw	4:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.08.25	Legia Warsaw - Arka Gdynia	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
31.07.25	Legia Warsaw - Baník Ostrava	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
21.06.25	Legia Warsaw - Wisła Płock	2:3
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.04.23	Legia Warsaw - Wisła Płock	2:0
Polish Cup
18.10.22	Wisła Płock - Legia Warsaw	0:3
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.10.22	Wisła Płock - Legia Warsaw	2:1
12.12.21	Wisła Płock - Legia Warsaw	1:0
24.07.21	Legia Warsaw - Wisła Płock	1:0
20.02.21	Legia Warsaw - Wisła Płock	5:2

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