Match Info

GERMANY: DFB POKAL - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 5 December 2023, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Voyo
Germany	Sky Sport, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top event
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Eleven Sports 4
Slovenia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	Viaplay


	Homburg		St. Pauli

	1	X	2
	10	5.25	1.3	Watch
	8.75	5.75	1.31
	10	5.5	1.32	Watch
	9.47	5.75	1.32
	9.47	5.75	1.3
	8	5.5	1.25
	9.2	5.8	1.31	Watch
	8.6	5.6	1.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.19 ↑ (6.76)	5.61 ↑ (5.02)	1.3 ↓ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Homburg
10.3%

Draw
16.9%

St. Pauli
72.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.9%

18.7%

67.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.9%

17.4%

62.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Homburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting St. Pauli's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Homburg than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for St. Pauli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Homburg - St. Pauli Predictions

Users Predictions: St. Pauli will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Kretzschmar T. (G) 2. Von-Piechowski L. 21. Kirchhoff B. 30. Heilig M. 26. Steinmetz T. 20. Jansen M. 22. Weihrauch P. 8. Dombrowka M. 13. Hoffmann P. 9. Harres P. 11. Mendler M. (C)	30. Burchert S. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. 3. Mets K. 23. Treu P. 7. Irvine J. (C) 10. Hartel M. 21. Ritzka L. 24. Metcalfe C. 11. Eggestein J. 14. Amenyido E.
Substitutes
5. Akoto R. 23. Eisele F. 19. Hummel D. 27. Knezevic I. 3. Lippert D. 1. Mayer J. (G) 10. Quirin L. 18. Schmidt D. 16. Stavridis A.	17. Afolayan O. 16. Boukhalfa C. 9. Maurides 4. Nemeth D. 26. Saad E. 2. Saliakas M. 32. Scheller T. 15. Sinani D. 22. Vasilj N. (G)
Coaches
Schwarz D.	Hurzeler F.

Preview

Now both teams are in good shape.

Homburg could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match St. Pauli is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Zoller S. (Muscle Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC 08 Homburg
German Regionalliga Sudwest
02.12.23	Hoffenheim II - Homburg	1:1 ✺
25.11.23	Homburg - Eintracht Frankfurt II	2:0 ✺
18.11.23	VfR Aalen - Homburg	1:6 ✺
12.11.23	Stuttgarter Kickers - Homburg	2:2 ✺
04.11.23	Homburg - TSV Steinbach Haiger	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TWWTW
- FC St. Pauli
German 2 Bundesliga
01.12.23	St. Pauli - Hamburger SV	2:2 ✺
25.11.23	Hansa Rostock - St. Pauli	2:3 ✺
10.11.23	St. Pauli - Hannover	0:0 ✺
03.11.23	Elversberg - St. Pauli	0:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
31.10.23	St. Pauli - Schalke 04	2:1 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWTWW

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