Match Info

GERMANY: DFB POKAL - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 31 October 2023, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport
Belgium	Eleven Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Voyo
Germany	Sky Sport, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top event
Poland	Eleven Sports 3, Eleven Sports 4
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport


	St. Pauli		Schalke 04

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.5	7	Watch
	1.47	4.75	6
	1.48	4.75	6.5	Watch
	1.79	3.8	3.55
	1.47	4.99	6.46
	1.4	4.6	5.8
	1.47	4.8	6.05	Watch
	1.46	4.7	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.79)	4.61 ↑ (3.63)	5.92 ↑ (4.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
63.4%

Draw
20.6%

Schalke 04
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

25.6%

22.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

25%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in St. Pauli's performance.

Schalke 04 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Schalke 04 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with St. Pauli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Schalke 04 than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Schalke 04 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	8.3%	16.7%

St. Pauli - Schalke 04 Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 18 - 75%). Schalke will win (votes: 4 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for St. Pauli: 57.7% – 92.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Burchert S. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. 3. Mets K. 23. Treu P. 7. Irvine J. (C) 10. Hartel M. 21. Ritzka L. 15. Sinani D. 6. Zoller S. 26. Saad E.	1. Fahrmann R. (G) 22. Cisse I. 35. Kaminski M. 5. Murkin D. J. 41. Matriciani H. 8. Latza D. 6. Schallenberg R. 29. Mohr T. 11. Lasme B. 9. Terodde S. (C) 19. Karaman K.
Substitutes
17. Afolayan O. 14. Amenyido E. 16. Boukhalfa C. 25. Dzwigala A. 11. Eggestein J. 24. Metcalfe C. 4. Nemeth D. 2. Saliakas M. 22. Vasilj N. (G)	25. Baumgartl T. 28. Heekeren J. (G) 18. Idrizi B. 17. Kabadayi Y. 26. Kalas T. 14. Kozuki S. 2. Ouwejan T. 40. Polter S. 21. Tauer N.
Coaches
Hurzeler F.	Geraerts K.

Preview

St. Pauli in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Schalke is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match St. Pauli is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's St. Pauli to win the game is with odds 1.57.

Last 3 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-5.

Including matches at home between the teams St. Pauli won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German 2 Bundesliga
28.10.23	St. Pauli - Karlsruher	2:1 ✺
21.10.23	Paderborn - St. Pauli	2:2 ✺
07.10.23	St. Pauli - Nürnberg	5:1 ✺
30.09.23	Hertha Berlin - St. Pauli	1:2 ✺
23.09.23	St. Pauli - Schalke 04	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WTWWW
- Schalke 04
German 2 Bundesliga
28.10.23	Schalke 04 - Hannover	3:2 ✺
22.10.23	Karlsruher - Schalke 04	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
12.10.23	Schalke 04 - Heracles Almelo	4:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
08.10.23	Schalke 04 - Hertha Berlin	1:2 ✺
29.09.23	Paderborn - Schalke 04	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
23.09.23	St. Pauli - Schalke 04	3:1
07.05.22	Schalke 04 - St. Pauli	3:2
04.12.21	St. Pauli - Schalke 04	2:1

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