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St. Pauli - Hamburger SV: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • Bundesliga - Round 19
  • Date: 23 January 2026, Friday
  • Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)
  • Referee: Welz T. (Ger)
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    St. Pauli Hamburger SV
    St. Pauli Hamburger SV
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.86 ↑
    (2.4)    		 2.91 ↓
    (3.34)    		 2.81 ↓
    (2.98)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

    • The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    St. Pauli
    33.3%    		Draw
    32.8%    		Hamburger SV
    33.9%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    39.6% 28.5% 31.9%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    39.9% 28.3% 31.7%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that St. Pauli's form might have worsened.
  • Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+6.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St. Pauli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    29.5% 47.7% 22.7%

    St. Pauli - Hamburger SV Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 12 - 28.6%). Hamburg will win (votes: 9 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 21 - 50%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 34.9% – 65.1%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Hamburg (votes: 8 - 50%). Tie (votes: 5 - 31.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 8 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
    • O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • AH 0 - St. Pauli (1.96) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
    • DC - St. Pauli (1.50) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • DNB - St. Pauli (1.91) (votes: 2 - 50%) .
    • AH -0.25 - Hamburg (2.25) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 12 - 41.4%). Hamburg (votes: 12 - 41.4%). Tie (votes: 5 - 17.2%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    22. BosniaVasilj N. (G)
    25. PolandDzwigala A.
      5. GermanyWahl H.
      3. EstoniaMets K.
    11. PolandPyrka A.
      6. USASands J.
      8. SwedenSmith E. (C)
    23. GermanyOppie L.
    16. JapanFujita J.
    19. NetherlandsKaars M.
    28. FrancePereira Lage M.
    		  1. PortugalHeuer Fernandes D. (G)
    24. ArgentinaCapaldo N. (C)
    44. CroatiaVuskovic L.
    25. NigeriaTorunarigha J.
    18. GambiaJatta B.
    20. PortugalVieira F.
    21. GermanyRemberg N.
    28. SwitzerlandMuheim M.
    11. GhanaKonigsdorffer R.
    19. USADowns D.
    38. NorwayRossing-Lelesiit A.
    Substitutes
    15. JapanAndo T.
      9. GambiaCeesay A.
      7. AustraliaIrvine J.
    26. EnglandJones R.J.
    21. GermanyRitzka L.
    34. AustriaRobatsch J.
      2. GreeceSaliakas M.
    10. LuxembourgSinani D.
      1. GermanyVoll B. A. (G)
    		45. PortugalBalde F.
      7. FranceDompe J.
      8. LibyaElfadli D.
      9. GermanyGlatzel R.
    16. GeorgiaGocholeishvili G.
      6. BelgiumLokonga A. S.
      2. FranceMikelbrencis W.
    14. FrancePhilippe R.
    12. NorwayTangvik S. (G)
    Coaches
         GermanyBlessin A.
    		     GermanyPolzin M.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 0)
    • 7', Dzwigala A. 🟨,
    • 14', Rossing-Lelesiit A. ↓, Balde F. ↑,
    • 24', Remberg N. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
    • 46', Kaars M. ↓, Jones R.J. ↑,
    • 65', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Sinani D. ↑,
    • 65', Dzwigala A. ↓, Irvine J. ↑,
    • 68', Balde F. ↓, Dompe J. ↑,
    • 68', Downs D. ↓, Glatzel R. ↑,
    • 68', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
    • 88', Vieira F. ↓, Lokonga A. S. ↑,

    Preview

  • This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 14).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 2.
  • Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
  • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
  • There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A. (Ankle Injury) Metcalfe C. (Knee Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)
  • There will not play in Hamburg: Poulsen Y. (Ankle Injury) Ramos G. (Inactive)
  • There are questionable in St. Pauli: Irvine J. (Foot Injury)
  • In the last 13 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:17. (average 1.6:1.3).
  • Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:8. (average 1.8:1.3).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    16Hamburger SV41032:13-113

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - FC St. Pauli
    German Bundesliga
    17.01.26 Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli 3:2 ✺
    14.01.26 Wolfsburg - St. Pauli 2:1 ✺
    Club Friendly
    04.01.26 St. Pauli - Werder Bremen 0:0 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    21.12.25 Mainz - St. Pauli 0:0 ✺
    13.12.25 St. Pauli - Heidenheim 2:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9
    LLTTW
    - Hamburger SV
    German Bundesliga
    17.01.26 Hamburger SV - Borussia Mönchengladbach 0:0 ✺
    10.01.26 Freiburg - Hamburger SV 2:1 ✺
    20.12.25 Hamburger SV - Eintracht Frankfurt 1:1 ✺
    13.12.25 Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV 4:1 ✺
    07.12.25 Hamburger SV - Werder Bremen 3:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6
    TLTLW
    Latest Head to Head
    German Bundesliga
    29.08.25 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 0:2
    German 2 Bundesliga
    03.05.24 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 1:0
    01.12.23 St. Pauli - Hamburger SV 2:2
    21.04.23 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 4:3
    14.10.22 St. Pauli - Hamburger SV 3:0
    21.01.22 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 2:1
    13.08.21 St. Pauli - Hamburger SV 3:2
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - FC St. Pauli
    German 2 Bundesliga
    11.10.26 St. Pauli - Karlsruher ✺
    - Hamburger SV
    German Bundesliga
    10.10.26 Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV ✺

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