Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 19

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Welz T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 1, CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Albania	20:30	Tring Sport 2
Angola	20:30	Z Sports 1
Argentina	16:30	Disney+
Armenia	23:30	Setanta Sports 2
Australia	06:30	beIN Connect
Austria	20:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Azerbaijan	23:30	Setanta Sports 2
Bulgaria	21:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	14:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	16:30	Disney+
China	03:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	14:30	Disney+
Croatia	20:30	SportKlub 3
Czech Republic	20:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	20:30	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Europe	—	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	21:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool, V Sport Premium
France	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	23:30	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	20:30	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	21:30	Nova Sports 3
Hong Kong	03:30	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	20:30	Arena 4, Net4+
Iceland	19:30	Viaplay
India	01:00	Vision+
Indonesia	02:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	21:30	Sport 1
Italy	20:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Max
Japan	04:30	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	01:30	Setanta Sports 2
Kyrgyzstan	01:30	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	02:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	03:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	20:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	13:30	Sky Sport
Moldova	21:30	Setanta Sports 2
Mongolia	03:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	20:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	08:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	20:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	20:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	00:30	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	05:30	TVWan Sports
Peru	14:30	Disney+
Philippines	03:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	20:30	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	19:30	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	21:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	22:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	22:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	20:30	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 2
Singapore	03:30	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	20:30	Voyo
Slovenia	20:30	Sport TV1
South Africa	21:30	SABC Plus, SABC Sport
South Korea	04:30	Coupang Play
Spain	20:30	DAZN Espana, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Suriname	16:30	SCCN
Sweden	20:30	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	20:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
Tajikistan	00:30	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	02:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	22:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	00:30	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	21:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	19:30	BBC iPlayer app, BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport
Uruguay	16:30	Disney+
Usa	14:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	00:30	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	15:30	Disney+
Vietnam	02:30	TV 360
International	19:30	Onefootball


	St. Pauli		Hamburger SV

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.9	2.8	Watch
	2.88	2.92	2.78	Watch
	2.94	2.94	2.88
	2.85	2.95	2.8	Watch
	2.8	2.8	2.75	Watch
	2.88	2.98	2.88	Watch
	2.9	2.85	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (2.4)	2.91 ↓ (3.34)	2.81 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
33.3%

Draw
32.8%

Hamburger SV
33.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.6%

28.5%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.9%

28.4%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that St. Pauli's form might have worsened.

Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St. Pauli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.5%	47.7%	22.7%

St. Pauli - Hamburger SV Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 12 - 28.6%). Hamburg will win (votes: 9 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 21 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 34.9% – 65.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Hamburg (votes: 8 - 50%). Tie (votes: 5 - 31.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 8 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - St. Pauli (1.96) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - St. Pauli (1.50) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - St. Pauli (1.91) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

AH -0.25 - Hamburg (2.25) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 12 - 41.4%). Hamburg (votes: 12 - 41.4%). Tie (votes: 5 - 17.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 25. Dzwigala A. 5. Wahl H. 3. Mets K. 11. Pyrka A. 6. Sands J. 8. Smith E. (C) 23. Oppie L. 16. Fujita J. 19. Kaars M. 28. Pereira Lage M.	1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 24. Capaldo N. (C) 44. Vuskovic L. 25. Torunarigha J. 18. Jatta B. 20. Vieira F. 21. Remberg N. 28. Muheim M. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 19. Downs D. 38. Rossing-Lelesiit A.
Substitutes
15. Ando T. 9. Ceesay A. 7. Irvine J. 26. Jones R.J. 21. Ritzka L. 34. Robatsch J. 2. Saliakas M. 10. Sinani D. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	45. Balde F. 7. Dompe J. 8. Elfadli D. 9. Glatzel R. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 6. Lokonga A. S. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 14. Philippe R. 12. Tangvik S. (G)
Coaches
Blessin A.	Polzin M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Dzwigala A. 🟨,
14', Rossing-Lelesiit A. ↓, Balde F. ↑,
24', Remberg N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kaars M. ↓, Jones R.J. ↑,
65', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Sinani D. ↑,
65', Dzwigala A. ↓, Irvine J. ↑,
68', Balde F. ↓, Dompe J. ↑,
68', Downs D. ↓, Glatzel R. ↑,
68', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
88', Vieira F. ↓, Lokonga A. S. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A. (Ankle Injury) Metcalfe C. (Knee Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Hamburg: Poulsen Y. (Ankle Injury) Ramos G. (Inactive)

There are questionable in St. Pauli: Irvine J. (Foot Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:17. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:8. (average 1.8:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Hamburger SV	7	3	0	4	6:16	-10	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
17.01.26	Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli	3:2 ✺
14.01.26	Wolfsburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
04.01.26	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.12.25	Mainz - St. Pauli	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	St. Pauli - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLTTW
- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
17.01.26	Hamburger SV - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:0 ✺
10.01.26	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Hamburger SV - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV	4:1 ✺
07.12.25	Hamburger SV - Werder Bremen	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
29.08.25	Hamburger SV - St. Pauli	0:2
German 2 Bundesliga
03.05.24	Hamburger SV - St. Pauli	1:0
01.12.23	St. Pauli - Hamburger SV	2:2
21.04.23	Hamburger SV - St. Pauli	4:3
14.10.22	St. Pauli - Hamburger SV	3:0
21.01.22	Hamburger SV - St. Pauli	2:1
13.08.21	St. Pauli - Hamburger SV	3:2

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