Match Info

HONDURAS: LIGA NACIONAL - CLAUSURA - ROUND 16

Date: 15 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Humberto Micheletti (El Progreso)


	Honduras Progreso		CD Marathón

	1	X	2
	3	3.2	2.05
	3.23	3.19	2.05
	3.24	3.45	2.05
	3.15	3.3	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.16 ↑ (2.96)	3.29 ↑ (3.09)	2.06 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Honduras Progreso
28.7%

Draw
27.5%

CD Marathón
43.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

29.2%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30%

28.8%

41%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Honduras Progreso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

CD Marathón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Honduras Progreso than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CD Marathón than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Honduras Progreso - CD Marathón Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Honduras Progreso won 1.

Honduras Progreso is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Marathón is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Marathón will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 39 head-to-head matches Honduras Progreso won 10 matches, drawn 10 matches, lost 19 matches and goals 43-66.

Including matches at home between the teams Honduras Progreso won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 23-29.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Honduras Progreso
Honduras Liga Nacional
06.04.23	Honduras Progreso - Olancho	1:1 ✺
02.04.23	Real España - Honduras Progreso	3:0 ✺
18.03.23	Honduras Progreso - Real Sociedad Tocoa	2:2 ✺
11.03.23	Lobos UPNFM - Honduras Progreso	4:2 ✺
04.03.23	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Honduras Progreso	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 TLTLT
- CD Marathón
Honduras Liga Nacional
06.04.23	CD Marathón - Lobos UPNFM	1:1 ✺
01.04.23	Victoria La Ceiba - CD Marathón	0:1 ✺
19.03.23	Real España - CD Marathón	0:1 ✺
11.03.23	CD Marathón - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	2:0 ✺
04.03.23	Vida - CD Marathón	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
16.02.23	CD Marathón - Honduras Progreso	1:0
01.10.22	CD Marathón - Honduras Progreso	5:1
06.08.22	Honduras Progreso - CD Marathón	0:2
06.04.22	CD Marathón - Honduras Progreso	1:1
13.02.22	Honduras Progreso - CD Marathón	2:1
09.10.21	CD Marathón - Honduras Progreso	2:1
08.08.21	Honduras Progreso - CD Marathón	1:2

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