Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Yankel Rosenthal (San Pedro Sula)

Where to Watch on TV:


Honduras	Deportes TV


	CD Marathón		Lobos UPNFM

	1	X	2
	1.37	4.35	6.7
	1.32	4.35	6.2
	1.39	4.77	7.08	Watch
	1.36	3.9	7.5
	1.36	4.15	7.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.46)	4.3 ↑ (3.94)	7.09 ↑ (6.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CD Marathón
66.3%

Draw
21%

Lobos UPNFM
12.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.3%

23%

14.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.4%

24.2%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CD Marathón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Lobos UPNFM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CD Marathón than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lobos UPNFM than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

CD Marathón - Lobos UPNFM Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Marathón (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rougier J. (G) 19. Aguilera J. 3. Bodden K. 7. Castillo I. 54. Fernandez J. 5. Martinez Hernandez F. E. 11. Messiniti N. 22. Nunez M. 10. Ramirez D. (C) 4. Rivera J. 17. Vega Orellana A. N.	12. Guity A. (G) 21. Guity E. 2. Lopez L. 32. Martinez J. 10. Morales M. 8. Nunez J. 25. Onofre G. 27. Pena K. (C) 7. Rochez C. 3. Rodas Andrino G. J. 5. Zuniga A.
Substitutes
35. Alvarado 60. Arriaga L. 39. Canales M. 79. Castillo R. 26. Elvir S. 43. Montoya L. 13. Moya B. 27. Perez C. 21. Ramos O. 30. Sacaza C. 23. Samudio C. (G) 8. Sorto Caballero T. A.	22. Ardon C. 65. Coello A. 55. Lagos J. (G) 26. Lopez B. 20. Lopez E. 11. Moreira R. 17. Padilla J. 9. Rochez J. 16. Vasquez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Onofre G. 🟨,
24', Onofre G. ↓, Lopez E. ↑,
33', Zuniga A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Martinez J. ↓, Vasquez E. ↑,
46', Morales M. ↓, Padilla J. ↑,
46', Rochez C. ↓, Rochez J. ↑,
55', Zuniga A. 🟨,
56', Rochez J. 🟨,
63', Ramirez D. ↓, Castillo R. ↑,
64', Fernandez J. ↓, Perez C. ↑,
64', Pena K. ↓, Moreira R. ↑,
66', Padilla J. 🟥,
68', 1 - 0, Castillo I. ⚽,
72', Guity E. 🟨,
72', Moreira R. 🟨,
74', 2 - 0, Messiniti N. ⚽,
75', Messiniti N. ↓, Sorto Caballero T. A. ↑,
76', Vega Orellana A. N. 🟨,
79', Vega Orellana A. N. ↓, Moya B. ↑,
79', Castillo I. ↓, Ramos O. ↑,
80', Nunez M. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Triangulares: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Triangulares: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marathón won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Marathón may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Marathón is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Marathón won 8 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 36:23. (average 1.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Marathón won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 24:11. (average 2.4:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Marathon	8	5	2	1	14:6	8	17
9	UPNFM	8	2	2	4	7:12	-5	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Marathón
Honduras Liga Nacional
10.03.26	Choloma - CD Marathón	0:0 ✺
01.03.26	CD Marathón - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	2:1 ✺
26.02.26	CD Marathón - Génesis PN	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Olancho - CD Marathón	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Motagua - CD Marathón	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TWLTT
- Lobos UPNFM
Honduras Liga Nacional
11.03.26	Motagua - Lobos UPNFM	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Lobos UPNFM - Juticalpa	3:2 ✺
02.03.26	Génesis PN - Lobos UPNFM	0:2 ✺
26.02.26	Lobos UPNFM - Platense	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Real España - Lobos UPNFM	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
25.01.26	Lobos UPNFM - CD Marathón	1:1
04.12.25	CD Marathón - Lobos UPNFM	2:0
18.09.25	Lobos UPNFM - CD Marathón	2:2
03.05.25	Lobos UPNFM - CD Marathón	0:0
01.03.25	CD Marathón - Lobos UPNFM	3:3
26.10.24	CD Marathón - Lobos UPNFM	1:2
17.08.24	Lobos UPNFM - CD Marathón	2:0

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