Match Info

National League South - Round 34

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: The Fusion Aviation Community Stadium (Horsham)


	Horsham		Hemel Hempstead Town

	1	X	2
	2.48	3.25	2.62
	2.49	3.3	2.67
	2.45	3.45	2.69	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.7
	2.4	3.18	2.64
	2.54	3.25	2.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↓ (2.55)	3.26 ↓ (3.43)	2.65 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Horsham
37.2%

Draw
28.2%

Hemel Hempstead Town
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

27.1%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

26.3%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Horsham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Hemel Hempstead Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Horsham than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hemel Hempstead Town than the current prediction. (+3%)

Horsham - Hemel Hempstead Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Hammond J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', 2 - 0, Gravata L. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Hemel Hempstead may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Horsham won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Hemel Hempstead: 2.3% Horsham FC: 1.91%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10:10	0	13
17	Horsham FC	9	2	5	2	9:10	-1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Hemel Hempstead Town - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 36.45%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Horsham FC
English National League South
17.02.26	Enfield Town - Horsham	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Slough Town - Horsham	0:0 ✺
10.02.26	Horsham - Dagenham & Redbridge	1:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
31.01.26	Scunthorpe United - Horsham	1:2 ✺
English National League South
24.01.26	Horsham - Chelmsford City	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LTTWL
- Hemel Hempstead Town
English National League South
14.02.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Worthing	1:0 ✺
10.02.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Hampton & Richmond Borough	0:3 ✺
03.02.26	Ebbsfleet United - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Dover Athletic	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Maidstone United - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Horsham	0:2
English National League South
22.11.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Horsham	1:1

Upcoming Matches