Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 12

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero (Talcahuano)

Referee: Carvajal R. (Chi)


	Huachipato		Unión La Calera

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.82	3.1	Watch
	2.32	3.2	2.98	Watch
	2.49	3.24	3.1
	2.52	2.9	3.11	Watch
	2.3	2.9	2.9
	2.5	3	3.24	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.23)	3.01 ↓ (3.09)	3.07 ↓ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Huachipato
38.6%

Draw
31%

Unión La Calera
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

30.3%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

28.3%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Huachipato has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Unión La Calera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Huachipato than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Huachipato, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión La Calera than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Huachipato - Unión La Calera Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Huachipato will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Unión La Calera will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Huachipato: 68.4% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Unión La Calera (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Unión La Calera (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Bravo C. (G) 2. Guaiquil G. 5. Caroca R. 14. Vargas N. 27. Velasquez L. 8. Silva S. 38. Melgarejo S. (C) 10. Canete E. 11. Figueroa J. 9. Altamirano L. 33. Abarzua A.	1. Avellaneda N. (G) 25. Diaz C. 3. Palma N. 27. Gutierrez D. 4. Gutierrez C. 14. Villanueva C. 24. Requena J. 10. Mendez K. 5. Moya C. 7. Oyarzo Munoz B. 11. Saez S. (C)
Substitutes
26. Antinirre H. 7. Briceno M. 49. Cruzat I. (G) 21. Herrera C. 24. Leon Munoz M. A. 23. Martinez C. 3. Mellado B. 36. Osorio M. 15. Rodriguez M.	2. Andia Leon Y. W. 19. Campos M. 18. Encinas A. 12. Espinoza N. (G) 30. Fernandez M. 8. Leiva Y. 26. Maturana M. 9. Pozzo F. 29. Soto J.
Coaches
Garcia J.	Cicotello M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Oyarzo Munoz B. ⚽, Avellaneda N. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Canete E. ↓, Leon Munoz M. A. ↑,
46', Figueroa J. ↓, Martinez C. ↑,
46', Velasquez L. ↓, Briceno M. ↑,
46', Melgarejo S. ↓, Osorio M. ↑,
46', 1 - 1, Leon Munoz M. A. ⚽, Martinez C. (A),
58', Oyarzo Munoz B. ↓, Campos M. ↑,
58', Villanueva C. ↓, Soto J. ↑,
58', Moya C. ↓, Andia Leon Y. W. ↑,
62', Leon Munoz M. A. 🟨,
63', Abarzua A. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
70', Gutierrez D. 🟨,
71', 2 - 1, Altamirano L. ⚽, Vargas N. (A),
73', Diaz C. 🟨,
74', Rodriguez M. 🟨,
74', Martinez C. 🟨,
79', Requena J. 🟨,
81', Altamirano L. 🟨,
83', Palma N. ↓, Pozzo F. ↑,
89', Gutierrez C. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
90+8', 3 - 1, Guaiquil G. ⚽, Briceno M. (A),

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Huachipato won 2.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Unión La Calera may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Huachipato has had a series of away games.

Huachipato is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Huachipato won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 27:30. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Huachipato won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:18. (average 1.4:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Huachipato	24	10	4	10	34:39	-5	34
16	Union La Calera	23	4	5	14	19:40	-21	17

Last Results with these Odds

Huachipato - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 41.92%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Unión La Calera - the odds 3.36 are the expected chance of winning is 27.82%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Huachipato
Chilean Copa de la Liga
10.05.26	Coquimbo Unido - Huachipato	2:2 ✺
04.05.26	Deportes Concepción - Huachipato	0:1 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
26.04.26	Deportes La Serena - Huachipato	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Huachipato - Audax Italiano	3:2 ✺
10.04.26	OHiggins - Huachipato	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 TWTWW
- Unión La Calera
Chilean Copa de la Liga
10.05.26	Unión La Calera - Universidad de Chile	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Audax Italiano - Unión La Calera	1:1 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
24.04.26	Unión La Calera - Coquimbo Unido	1:2 ✺
20.04.26	Universidad Católica - Unión La Calera	1:2 ✺
13.04.26	Unión La Calera - Deportes Concepción	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.1 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Primera Division
09.08.25	Huachipato - Unión La Calera	1:0
07.03.25	Unión La Calera - Huachipato	1:0
28.07.24	Unión La Calera - Huachipato	2:1
25.02.24	Huachipato - Unión La Calera	0:1
06.10.23	Unión La Calera - Huachipato	2:4
22.04.23	Huachipato - Unión La Calera	2:3
08.08.22	Huachipato - Unión La Calera	3:4

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