Match Info

Serie B - Relegation Group - Round 8

Date: 15 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra (Ibarra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping


	Imbabura		Vargas Torres

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.65	3.7	5.97
	1.77	3.33	4.70	Watch
	1.64	3.28	5.44	Watch
	1.96	3.33	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.96)	3.41 ↑ (3.33)	4.86 ↑ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Imbabura
53.3%

Draw
27.4%

Vargas Torres
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

27.3%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Imbabura has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Imbabura's performance.

Vargas Torres has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vargas Torres might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Imbabura than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Imbabura that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vargas Torres than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vargas Torres could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	75%	0%

Imbabura - Vargas Torres Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Imbabura will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Imbabura (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Alcivar Sanchez A. F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Imbabura won 0.

Imbabura is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Vargas Torres is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Imbabura may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Vargas Torres has had a series of home games.

In this match, Imbabura is considered a favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Imbabura won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Imbabura won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Vargas Torres - the odds 3.33 are the expected chance of winning is 27.03%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Imbabura SC
Ecuadorian Serie B
12.10.25	Atlético Vinotinto - Imbabura	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Imbabura - 22 de Julio	1:1 ✺
17.09.25	Vargas Torres - Imbabura	2:1 ✺
10.09.25	Imbabura - Cumbayá	0:0 ✺
04.09.25	Imbabura - Atlético Vinotinto	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TTLTL
- CSD Vargas Torres
Ecuadorian Serie B
08.10.25	Vargas Torres - Atlético Vinotinto	0:0 ✺
25.09.25	Vargas Torres - Chacaritas	0:0 ✺
17.09.25	Vargas Torres - Imbabura	2:1 ✺
10.09.25	Atlético Vinotinto - Vargas Torres	0:0 ✺
03.09.25	Vargas Torres - 22 de Julio	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
17.09.25	Vargas Torres - Imbabura	2:1
03.07.25	Vargas Torres - Imbabura	1:0
22.04.25	Imbabura - Vargas Torres	0:0
10.10.23	Imbabura - Vargas Torres	1:1
23.08.23	Vargas Torres - Imbabura	1:1
13.04.23	Vargas Torres - Imbabura	2:2

Imbabura - Vargas Torres: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide