Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 15 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Libertadores de América (Avellaneda)

Referee: Rodrigues F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Independiente		Guaraní Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.25	5.5	13	Watch
	1.32	5	9.5
	1.22	6	12	Watch
	1.22	6.28	12.8
	1.26	5.75	12.47	Watch
	1.33	4.6	9.5	Watch
	1.23	5.9	13	Watch
	1.22	6	12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.26 ↓ (1.41)	5.63 ↑ (4.26)	11.78 ↑ (8.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente
75.2%

Draw
16.8%

Guaraní Asuncion
8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.9%

22.1%

11%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

20.3%

12%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente's performance.

Guaraní Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-13.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independiente that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Independiente - Guaraní Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Guaraní will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Independiente (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.75 - Independiente (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Independiente (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Rey R. (C) 4. Vera F. 26. Lomonaco K. 36. Valdez S. 77. Angulo A. 5. Loyola F. 20. Rodrigo Fernandez 27. Tarzia D. 10. Cabral L. 7. Montiel S. 34. Gimenez M.	30. Gimenez M. (G) 2. Benitez Cabrera A. J. 5. Lopez M. 14. Vargas G. 24. Patino Martinez J. 4. Ibarrola W. 11. Barrientos N. 8. Maiz A. 7. Manzur A. 32. Cantero A. 17. Torales Richard
Substitutes
1. Blazquez J. (G) 39. de Irastorza J. 6. Freire N. 8. Galdames P. 16. Hidalgo S. 18. Maestro I. 11. Mancuello F. 21. Martinez D. 37. Medina J. 14. Millan L. 35. Salle S. 28. Taborda E.	13. Benitez J. 16. Cespedes V. 26. Fernandez D. 1. Jara K. (G) 33. Maciel A. 20. Maidana A. 6. Marecos G. 10. Mendieta W. 21. Pinatares B. 9. Ramirez I. 27. Roman Torales F. J. 19. Romero A.
Coaches
Vaccari J.	Arce F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', Rodrigo Fernandez 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Tarzia D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Torales Richard ↓, Fernandez D. ↑,
61', Barrientos N. ↓, Mendieta W. ↑,
61', Vargas G. ↓, Cespedes V. ↑,
65', Ibarrola W. ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
66', Gimenez M. ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
66', Montiel S. ↓, Millan L. ↑,
68', Manzur A. 🟨,
74', Cabral L. ↓, Galdames P. ↑,
76', Maiz A. ↓, Pinatares B. ↑,
80', Benitez Cabrera A. J. 🟨,
82', Angulo A. 🟨,
89', Tarzia D. ↓, Salle S. ↑,
90+5', Lopez M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 3.

Recent performances by Independiente have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Guaraní is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Independiente is the clear favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Independiente won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 1.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.05.25	Independiente - Independiente Rivadavia	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.25	Boston River - Independiente	1:5 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.05.25	Rosario Central - Independiente	1:0 ✺
30.04.25	Atlético Tucumán - Independiente	2:0 ✺
27.04.25	Independiente - Deportivo Riestra	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WWLLT
- Guaraní Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
10.05.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.25	Nacional Potosí - Guaraní Asuncion	2:2 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
02.05.25	Deportivo Recoleta - Guaraní Asuncion	0:3 ✺
26.04.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.04.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Independiente	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.5 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
22.04.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Independiente	2:1
Paraguayan Primera Division
12.10.18	Independiente - Guaraní Asuncion	1:0
27.07.18	Guaraní Asuncion - Independiente	0:0
08.05.18	Independiente - Guaraní Asuncion	2:1
05.03.18	Guaraní Asuncion - Independiente	0:1
14.10.17	Independiente - Guaraní Asuncion	0:1
28.07.17	Guaraní Asuncion - Independiente	3:0

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