Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Gigante de Arroyito (Rosario)

Referee: Perez Y. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Brazil	Disney+
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
South-america	ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Rosario Central		Independiente

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	4	Watch
	2.37	2.9	3.2
	2.15	2.92	3.9	Watch
	2.18	3.06	4.16
	2.31	2.71	3.98	Watch
	2.15	2.75	3.8
	2.17	2.89	3.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.46)	2.89 ↑ (2.82)	3.84 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rosario Central
42.9%

Draw
32.6%

Independiente
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

33.6%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

33.7%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rosario Central has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rosario Central than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Rosario Central - Independiente Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Rosario will win (votes: 8 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rosario: 55.2% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Ledesma C. (G) 32. Coronel E. 46. Ovando I. 13. Avila G. 3. Sandez A. 5. Ibarra F. 20. Pizarro V. 16. Gimenez E. 28. Fernandez P. 11. Di Maria A. (C) 22. Copetti E.	33. Rey R. (C) 4. Arias S. 26. Lomonaco K. 36. Valdez S. 3. Valenzuela M. 16. Perez Curci M. 23. Marcone I. 28. Gutierrez M. 40. Malcorra I. 19. Abaldo M. 9. Avalos G.
Substitutes
1. Broun J. (G) 26. Cantizano G. 15. Mallo Blanco F. 31. Navarro F. 39. Oviedo F. 2. Quintana C. 47. Raffin L. 29. Ruben M. 10. Segovia S. 33. Soto A. 9. Veliz A. 42. Veron E.	1. Blazquez J. (G) 10. Cabral L. 13. Fedorco J. 6. Freire N. 29. Godoy L. 11. Mancuello F. 8. Millan L. 7. Montiel S. 5. Rodrigo Fernandez 34. Tempone F. 43. Valdez F. 22. Zabala F.
Coaches
Almiron J.	Quinteros G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', Pizarro V. 🟨,
34', Perez Curci M. 🟨,
36', 0 - 1, Avalos G. ⚽, Gutierrez M. (A),
45+2', 1 - 1, Di Maria A. ⚽, Ibarra F. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Gimenez E. ↓, Cantizano G. ↑,
50', Malcorra I. 🟨,
65', Lomonaco K. ↓, Fedorco J. ↑,
75', Perez Curci M. ↓, Montiel S. ↑,
75', Malcorra I. ↓, Millan L. ↑,
82', Pizarro V. ↓, Veron E. ↑,
82', Sandez A. ↓, Soto A. ↑,
84', 2 - 1, Cantizano G. ⚽, Coronel E. (A),
87', Di Maria A. ↓, Veliz A. ↑,
87', Copetti E. ↓, Quintana C. ↑,
89', Gutierrez M. ↓, Tempone F. ↑,
89', Valenzuela M. ↓, Zabala F. ↑,
90+2', 3 - 1, Veron E. ⚽, Cantizano G. (A),
90+3', Veron E. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rosario won 1.

Rosario is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Independiente is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Independiente may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Rosario could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Rosario: Duarte G. (Inactive) Gimenez J. (Knee Injury) Komar J. (Heart Problems) Ruben M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Independiente: Pussetto I. (Inactive)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Rosario won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 12:17. (average 0.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Rosario won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.1:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Rosario Central - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 38.56%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Independiente - the odds 3.4 are the expected chance of winning is 27.87%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rosario Central
Copa Libertadores
05.05.26	Rosario Central - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.05.26	Rosario Central - Tigre	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Universidad Central - Rosario Central	0:3 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.04.26	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Rosario Central	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Rosario Central - Sarmiento de Junín	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WTWWW
- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.05.26	San Lorenzo - Independiente	1:2 ✺
24.04.26	Deportivo Riestra - Independiente	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Independiente - Defensa y Justicia	3:1 ✺
11.04.26	Boca Juniors - Independiente	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Independiente - Racing	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.11.25	Independiente - Rosario Central	1:0
03.05.25	Rosario Central - Independiente	1:0
17.08.24	Independiente - Rosario Central	1:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
13.02.24	Independiente - Rosario Central	1:0
19.09.23	Rosario Central - Independiente	1:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.04.23	Rosario Central - Independiente	1:0
16.07.22	Independiente - Rosario Central	0:0

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