Match Info

Serie B - Round 11

Date: 28 May 2025, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Independiente Juniors		Vargas Torres

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.58	4	4.6	Watch
	1.57	3.92	4.93
	1.61	4.07	5	Watch
	1.59	3.94	4.61
	1.58	4	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (2.2)	3.99 ↑ (3)	4.75 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Juniors
57.7%

Draw
23%

Vargas Torres
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

30%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

28.6%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Juniors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente Juniors's performance.

Vargas Torres has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vargas Torres might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Juniors than the current prediction. (-14.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independiente Juniors that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vargas Torres than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vargas Torres could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Independiente Juniors - Vargas Torres Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Independiente Jr (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Independiente Juniors will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Independiente Juniors will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Independiente Jr (votes: 11 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 10 in the zone Serie B (Relegation Group: ) and 8 in the zone Serie B (Relegation Group: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Independiente Jr won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Vargas Torres may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Independiente Jr is seen as the favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Independiente Jr won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 0.8:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Independiente Jr won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.3:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente Juniors - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 40.93%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Juniors
Ecuadorian Serie B
21.05.25	Imbabura - Independiente Juniors	4:0 ✺
13.05.25	Independiente Juniors - Gualaceo	1:1 ✺
07.05.25	9 de Octubre - Independiente Juniors	0:0 ✺
29.04.25	Independiente Juniors - Leones del Norte	1:0 ✺
22.04.25	22 de Julio - Independiente Juniors	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTTWL
- CSD Vargas Torres
Ecuadorian Serie B
20.05.25	Vargas Torres - San Antonio	1:2 ✺
14.05.25	Vargas Torres - Cumbayá	4:0 ✺
07.05.25	Gualaceo - Vargas Torres	2:1 ✺
01.05.25	Vargas Torres - 9 de Octubre	1:1 ✺
22.04.25	Imbabura - Vargas Torres	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
11.10.24	Independiente Juniors - Vargas Torres	2:0
23.08.24	Vargas Torres - Independiente Juniors	0:0
03.07.24	Vargas Torres - Independiente Juniors	1:1
12.03.24	Independiente Juniors - Vargas Torres	1:1
06.09.23	Vargas Torres - Independiente Juniors	1:0
12.07.23	Independiente Juniors - Vargas Torres	0:0
31.05.23	Vargas Torres - Independiente Juniors	1:0

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