Match Info

Serie B - Round 8

Date: 7 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Jorge Andrade (Azogues)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Gualaceo		Vargas Torres

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.4	4	7.4
	1.16	7.94	12.47	Watch
	1.5	3.4	7
	1.17	7.7	8.65
	1.4	4	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.5)	5.41 ↑ (3.48)	8.58 ↑ (7.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gualaceo
71.4%

Draw
17.5%

Vargas Torres
11%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.1%

26.3%

12.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63%

25.5%

12.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gualaceo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gualaceo's performance.

Vargas Torres has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gualaceo than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gualaceo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vargas Torres than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Gualaceo - Vargas Torres Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB, 1st Half - Vargas Torres (2.85) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC, 1st Half - Vargas Torres (2.27) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

1X2, 1st Half - Vargas Torres (8.70) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -0.25, 1st Half - Vargas Torres (4.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -1, 2nd Half - Gualaceo (1.72) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Gualaceo (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Vargas Torres (votes: 11 - 78.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', 0 - 1, Narváez J. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
65', 1 - 1, Ovando D. ⚽,
80', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: ) and 9 in the zone Serie B (Relegation Group: )).

Gualaceo is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Vargas Torres has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Vargas Torres may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Gualaceo is the obvious favorite.

We predict that Gualaceo will win today's game, with odds of 1.48.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Gualaceo won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 0.5:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Gualaceo won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gualaceo SC
Ecuadorian Serie B
30.04.25	Cumbayá - Gualaceo	0:2 ✺
23.04.25	Gualaceo - San Antonio	1:0 ✺
17.04.25	Gualaceo - 9 de Octubre	1:0 ✺
08.04.25	Imbabura - Gualaceo	1:1 ✺
02.04.25	Gualaceo - Leones del Norte	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WWWTT
- CSD Vargas Torres
Ecuadorian Serie B
01.05.25	Vargas Torres - 9 de Octubre	1:1 ✺
22.04.25	Imbabura - Vargas Torres	0:0 ✺
16.04.25	Vargas Torres - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
09.04.25	22 de Julio - Vargas Torres	1:1 ✺
03.04.25	Vargas Torres - Chacaritas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
08.09.24	Gualaceo - Vargas Torres	1:0
17.07.24	Vargas Torres - Gualaceo	0:1
05.06.24	Gualaceo - Vargas Torres	0:0
10.04.24	Vargas Torres - Gualaceo	1:0

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