Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 30 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Ortiz J. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Independiente Medellín		América de Cali

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.1	3.1	Watch
	2.38	3.2	2.98	Watch
	2.45	3.23	3.07
	2.19	3.24	3.35	Watch
	2.3	3	3
	2.32	3.13	3.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (1.99)	3.15 ↓ (3.44)	3.1 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
40.1%

Draw
29.7%

América de Cali
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

27.1%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

26.2%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente Medellín's form might have worsened.

América de Cali has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente Medellín, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for América de Cali than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for América de Cali, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	11.1%	22.2%

Independiente Medellín - América de Cali Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). América de Cali will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ind Medellín: 29% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - América de Cali (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. América de Cali (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ichazo S. (G) 2. Chaverra L. (C) 4. Mantilla K. 33. Londono D. 30. Palacios H. 14. Perlaza B. 16. Loboa H. 31. Moreno D. 18. Fabra F. 13. Chaverra F. 20. Montano J.	1. Jean (G) 13. Castillo M. 2. Torres M. 4. Mosquera A. 30. Bertel O. 17. Lucumi J. 15. Carrascal R. (C) 5. Escobar J. 11. Machis D. 10. Guzman Y. 9. Valencia D.
Substitutes
10. Catano D. 25. Chaux E. (G) 5. Escorcia L. 9. Larrosa E. 21. Mena J. 26. Mena Perea E. 24. Ortiz J. 45. Valdelamar A. 11. Yony Gonzalez	21. Angel T. 6. Cavadia J. 18. Garces Y. 14. Mina D. 19. Palacios J. 20. Ramos A. 25. Romero J. 3. Rosero D. 12. Soto J. (G)
Coaches
Restrepo A.	Gonzalez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Guzman Y. ⚽, Lucumi J. (A),
36', Mantilla K. ↓, Ortiz J. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Loboa H. ↓, Larrosa E. ↑,
47', Carrascal R. 🟨,
61', Palacios H. 🟨,
61', Palacios H. ↓, Catano D. ↑,
64', Machis D. ↓, Palacios J. ↑,
64', Valencia D. ↓, Garces Y. ↑,
76', Escobar J. 🟨,
78', Torres M. 🟨,
83', Chaverra L. ↓, Mena Perea E. ↑,
84', Moreno D. ↓, Yony Gonzalez ↑,
85', 1 - 1, Ortiz J. ⚽, Chaverra F. (A),
85', Lucumi J. ↓, Romero J. ↑,
85', Bertel O. ↓, Mina D. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Ortiz J. ⚽, Catano D. (A),
90+3', Escobar J. ↓, Ramos A. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 1.

Ind Medellín is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

América de Cali has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ind Medellín will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 28:24. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ind Medellín won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:11. (average 1.4:1.1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	America De Cali	12	8	3	1	24:7	17	27
7	Ind. Medellin	12	6	2	4	19:16	3	20

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente Medellín - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 46.92%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
23.03.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín	2:1 ✺
19.03.26	Independiente Medellín - Junior Barranquilla	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Independiente Medellín	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
12.03.26	Independiente Medellín - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1 ✺
05.03.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWWWT
- América de Cali
Colombian Primera A
25.03.26	América de Cali - Llaneros SA	0:0 ✺
20.03.26	Rionegro Águilas - América de Cali	0:1 ✺
15.03.26	América de Cali - Deportes Tolima	1:1 ✺
09.03.26	Deportivo Pasto - América de Cali	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.26	América de Cali - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
01.12.25	Independiente Medellín - América de Cali	1:1
27.11.25	América de Cali - Independiente Medellín	2:1
13.11.25	Independiente Medellín - América de Cali	3:0
19.06.25	América de Cali - Independiente Medellín	1:1
31.05.25	Independiente Medellín - América de Cali	1:1
25.05.25	América de Cali - Independiente Medellín	2:0
14.10.24	América de Cali - Independiente Medellín	1:0

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