Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 23 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio El Campín (Bogotá)

Referee: Melendez Panneflek A. J. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Independiente Santa Fe		Independiente Medellín

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.8	Watch
	2.25	3.25	2.87
	2.58	3.05	2.82	Watch
	2.66	3.15	2.85
	2.43	3.06	3.06	Watch
	2.6	3	2.7
	2.57	3.04	2.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (1.85)	3.09 ↓ (3.61)	2.84 ↓ (3.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Santa Fe
36.8%

Draw
30.2%

Independiente Medellín
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

25.9%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

25.9%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente Santa Fe's form might have worsened.

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Independiente Medellín's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+13.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente Santa Fe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Independiente Medellín, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Santa Fe will win (votes: 12 - 75%). Ind Medellín will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santa Fe: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Fe (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Ind Medellín (1.73) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Fe (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Ind Medellín (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mosquera A. (G) 13. Palacios H. 18. Olivera E. 3. Moreno V. 32. Mafla C. 20. Velasquez Y. 7. Torres J. 14. Palacios L. 17. Lovera M. 8. Fernandez O. 11. Rodallega H. (C)	1. Ichazo S. (G) 2. Chaverra L. 4. Mantilla K. 33. Londono D. 18. Fabra F. 26. Mena Perea E. 6. Moreno D. (C) 8. Serna A. 20. Montano J. 13. Chaverra F. 9. Larrosa E.
Substitutes
24. Angulo J. 12. Asprilla W. (G) 19. Bustos N. 37. Jhon Renteria 2. Juan Quintero 22. Mosquera E. 27. Perlaza Perea Y. A. 16. Torres D.	10. Catano D. 25. Chaux E. (G) 28. Davila A. 16. Loboa H. 17. Mancilla G. 31. Moreno D. 24. Ortiz J. 30. Palacios H. 14. Perlaza B.
Coaches
Repetto P.	Restrepo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Velasquez Y. 🟨,
29', Ichazo S. 🟨,
31', Serna A. 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Palacios L. ⚽, Rodallega H. (A),
35', Moreno D. 🟨,
44', Lovera M. 🟨,
45+4', Moreno D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Mena Perea E. ↓, Perlaza B. ↑,
46', Velasquez Y. ↓, Torres D. ↑,
52', Torres D. 🟨,
54', Serna A. 🟨,
56', Fabra F. 🟨,
58', Montano J. ↓, Loboa H. ↑,
58', Fabra F. ↓, Palacios H. ↑,
60', 2 - 0, Palacios H. ⚽,
64', Palacios L. ↓, Bustos N. ↑,
65', Lovera M. ↓, Perlaza Perea Y. A. ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Chaverra F. ⚽,
77', Mafla C. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
90+3', Fernandez O. ↓, Mosquera E. ↑,
90+3', Loboa H. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
90+4', Palacios H. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 15 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santa Fe won 2.

Santa Fe has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ind Medellín is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ind Medellín may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Santa Fe might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santa Fe won 8 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:16. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Santa Fe won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 1:0.6).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Santa Fe	12	6	4	2	19:12	7	22
7	Ind. Medellin	12	6	2	4	19:16	3	20

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Santa Fe
Colombian Primera A
18.03.26	Deportivo Cali - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Alianza Valledupar	1:1 ✺
25.02.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Nacional	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Junior Barranquilla	2:1 ✺
17.02.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Independiente Santa Fe	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TTLWL
- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
19.03.26	Independiente Medellín - Junior Barranquilla	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Independiente Medellín	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
12.03.26	Independiente Medellín - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1 ✺
05.03.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
28.02.26	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
20.10.25	Independiente Medellín - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1
Colombian Copa
01.10.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín	0:3
24.09.25	Independiente Medellín - Independiente Santa Fe	1:2
Colombian Primera A
29.06.25	Independiente Medellín - Independiente Santa Fe	1:2
24.06.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín	0:0
14.04.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín	1:2
18.10.24	Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín	1:1

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